Recent cold air advection over southern Brazil produced a record-low 10.1°C minimum in São Paulo on September 7, the coldest September morning in four years, elevating near-term probabilities for sub-12°C readings. Ensemble forecasts for September 9, however, show a warming trend with overnight lows most often projected between 13–17°C under variable cloud cover and light easterly flow. Radiative cooling rates will hinge on the timing of any incoming moisture and high-cloud deck, which can suppress temperature drops by several degrees. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 14–16°C, creating a narrow spread that keeps multiple threshold outcomes within a few percentage points in trader pricing. Updated model runs and official INMET guidance expected within 24 hours remain the key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 9?
21°C or higher 69%
11°C or below 64%
17°C 50%
15°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
11°C or below
64%
12°C
18%
13°C
22%
14°C
26%
15°C
30%
16°C
30%
17°C
50%
18°C
20%
19°C
14%
20°C
14%
21°C or higher
69%
21°C or higher 69%
11°C or below 64%
17°C 50%
15°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
64%
12°C
$0 Vol.
18%
13°C
$0 Vol.
22%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
30%
16°C
$0 Vol.
30%
17°C
$0 Vol.
50%
18°C
$0 Vol.
20%
19°C
$0 Vol.
14%
20°C
$0 Vol.
14%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cold air advection over southern Brazil produced a record-low 10.1°C minimum in São Paulo on September 7, the coldest September morning in four years, elevating near-term probabilities for sub-12°C readings. Ensemble forecasts for September 9, however, show a warming trend with overnight lows most often projected between 13–17°C under variable cloud cover and light easterly flow. Radiative cooling rates will hinge on the timing of any incoming moisture and high-cloud deck, which can suppress temperature drops by several degrees. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 14–16°C, creating a narrow spread that keeps multiple threshold outcomes within a few percentage points in trader pricing. Updated model runs and official INMET guidance expected within 24 hours remain the key variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 8:28 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cold air advection over southern Brazil produced a record-low 10.1°C minimum in São Paulo on September 7, the coldest September morning in four years, elevating near-term probabilities for sub-12°C readings. Ensemble forecasts for September 9, however, show a warming trend with overnight lows most often projected between 13–17°C under variable cloud cover and light easterly flow. Radiative cooling rates will hinge on the timing of any incoming moisture and high-cloud deck, which can suppress temperature drops by several degrees. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 14–16°C, creating a narrow spread that keeps multiple threshold outcomes within a few percentage points in trader pricing. Updated model runs and official INMET guidance expected within 24 hours remain the key variables.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 8:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cold air advection over southern Brazil produced a record-low 10.1°C minimum in São Paulo on September 7, the coldest September morning in four years, elevating near-term probabilities for sub-12°C readings. Ensemble forecasts for September 9, however, show a warming trend with overnight lows most often projected between 13–17°C under variable cloud cover and light easterly flow. Radiative cooling rates will hinge on the timing of any incoming moisture and high-cloud deck, which can suppress temperature drops by several degrees. Historical September climatology places typical minima near 14–16°C, creating a narrow spread that keeps multiple threshold outcomes within a few percentage points in trader pricing. Updated model runs and official INMET guidance expected within 24 hours remain the key variables.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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