Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a high of 98–99°F for Austin on September 9 under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow. Persistent subtropical high pressure is promoting strong subsidence and warm advection from the Gulf, maintaining daytime temperatures several degrees above the early-September climatological normal of 92–93°F while keeping dew points in the mid-70s and elevating heat indices. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with only modest model-to-model differences in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing that could nudge the peak by a degree or two. No frontal passage or significant moisture surge is expected before resolution, supporting the heavy market weighting on the 98–99°F bin and the secondary 96–97°F and 100–101°F outcomes. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon model runs on September 8 will provide the final adjustments ahead of the daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 9?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 9?
98-99°F 61%
96-97°F 19%
100-101°F 19%
102-103°F 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
87°F or below
1%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
1%
96-97°F
19%
98-99°F
61%
100-101°F
19%
102-103°F
2%
104-105°F
1%
106°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 61%
96-97°F 19%
100-101°F 19%
102-103°F 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
87°F or below
$203 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$59 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$73 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$64 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$59 Vol.
1%
96-97°F
$115 Vol.
19%
98-99°F
$2,174 Vol.
61%
100-101°F
$370 Vol.
19%
102-103°F
$55 Vol.
2%
104-105°F
$33 Vol.
1%
106°F or higher
$172 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a high of 98–99°F for Austin on September 9 under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow. Persistent subtropical high pressure is promoting strong subsidence and warm advection from the Gulf, maintaining daytime temperatures several degrees above the early-September climatological normal of 92–93°F while keeping dew points in the mid-70s and elevating heat indices. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with only modest model-to-model differences in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing that could nudge the peak by a degree or two. No frontal passage or significant moisture surge is expected before resolution, supporting the heavy market weighting on the 98–99°F bin and the secondary 96–97°F and 100–101°F outcomes. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon model runs on September 8 will provide the final adjustments ahead of the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,376End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a high of 98–99°F for Austin on September 9 under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow. Persistent subtropical high pressure is promoting strong subsidence and warm advection from the Gulf, maintaining daytime temperatures several degrees above the early-September climatological normal of 92–93°F while keeping dew points in the mid-70s and elevating heat indices. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with only modest model-to-model differences in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing that could nudge the peak by a degree or two. No frontal passage or significant moisture surge is expected before resolution, supporting the heavy market weighting on the 98–99°F bin and the secondary 96–97°F and 100–101°F outcomes. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon model runs on September 8 will provide the final adjustments ahead of the daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,376End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a high of 98–99°F for Austin on September 9 under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow. Persistent subtropical high pressure is promoting strong subsidence and warm advection from the Gulf, maintaining daytime temperatures several degrees above the early-September climatological normal of 92–93°F while keeping dew points in the mid-70s and elevating heat indices. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, with only modest model-to-model differences in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing that could nudge the peak by a degree or two. No frontal passage or significant moisture surge is expected before resolution, supporting the heavy market weighting on the 98–99°F bin and the secondary 96–97°F and 100–101°F outcomes. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon model runs on September 8 will provide the final adjustments ahead of the daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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