A strengthening upper-level ridge combined with moisture and circulation remnants from former Hurricane Marie is suppressing San Francisco’s typical onshore flow and marine layer, driving trader focus on whether the September 9 overnight low stays near or above 68 °F or drops toward seasonal norms. Official forecasts show highs in the mid-70s to upper 70s with lows clustered in the mid-to-upper 60s, well above the long-term September average low near 56 °F, because light winds and high clouds limit radiational cooling. Model consensus remains split on the exact depth of any residual stratus or timing of northwest flow return, creating the near-even market split between sub-55 °F and 74 °F+ outcomes while narrower 60–70 °F bins trade at lower implied probabilities. Updated National Weather Service guidance and overnight observations through Tuesday will clarify inversion strength and sea-surface temperature effects ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 9?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 9?
55°F or below 91%
74°F or higher 89%
56-57°F 49%
58-59°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
55°F or below
91%
56-57°F
49%
58-59°F
49%
60-61°F
49%
62-63°F
49%
64-65°F
26%
66-67°F
30%
68-69°F
49%
70-71°F
49%
72-73°F
49%
74°F or higher
89%
55°F or below 91%
74°F or higher 89%
56-57°F 49%
58-59°F 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
55°F or below
$0 Vol.
91%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
49%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
49%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
49%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
49%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
26%
66-67°F
$260 Vol.
30%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
49%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
49%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
49%
74°F or higher
$0 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strengthening upper-level ridge combined with moisture and circulation remnants from former Hurricane Marie is suppressing San Francisco’s typical onshore flow and marine layer, driving trader focus on whether the September 9 overnight low stays near or above 68 °F or drops toward seasonal norms. Official forecasts show highs in the mid-70s to upper 70s with lows clustered in the mid-to-upper 60s, well above the long-term September average low near 56 °F, because light winds and high clouds limit radiational cooling. Model consensus remains split on the exact depth of any residual stratus or timing of northwest flow return, creating the near-even market split between sub-55 °F and 74 °F+ outcomes while narrower 60–70 °F bins trade at lower implied probabilities. Updated National Weather Service guidance and overnight observations through Tuesday will clarify inversion strength and sea-surface temperature effects ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$260End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strengthening upper-level ridge combined with moisture and circulation remnants from former Hurricane Marie is suppressing San Francisco’s typical onshore flow and marine layer, driving trader focus on whether the September 9 overnight low stays near or above 68 °F or drops toward seasonal norms. Official forecasts show highs in the mid-70s to upper 70s with lows clustered in the mid-to-upper 60s, well above the long-term September average low near 56 °F, because light winds and high clouds limit radiational cooling. Model consensus remains split on the exact depth of any residual stratus or timing of northwest flow return, creating the near-even market split between sub-55 °F and 74 °F+ outcomes while narrower 60–70 °F bins trade at lower implied probabilities. Updated National Weather Service guidance and overnight observations through Tuesday will clarify inversion strength and sea-surface temperature effects ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$260End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening upper-level ridge combined with moisture and circulation remnants from former Hurricane Marie is suppressing San Francisco’s typical onshore flow and marine layer, driving trader focus on whether the September 9 overnight low stays near or above 68 °F or drops toward seasonal norms. Official forecasts show highs in the mid-70s to upper 70s with lows clustered in the mid-to-upper 60s, well above the long-term September average low near 56 °F, because light winds and high clouds limit radiational cooling. Model consensus remains split on the exact depth of any residual stratus or timing of northwest flow return, creating the near-even market split between sub-55 °F and 74 °F+ outcomes while narrower 60–70 °F bins trade at lower implied probabilities. Updated National Weather Service guidance and overnight observations through Tuesday will clarify inversion strength and sea-surface temperature effects ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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