**Forecast consensus from official and international models centers on a daily high of 31–32°C for Shanghai on August 28, 2026, aligning with the market's strong implied probabilities (31°C at 55.5%, 32°C at 30%).** Multiple sources, including the China Meteorological Administration and global models, project highs in this narrow range amid increasing cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and easterly to northeasterly winds associated with Typhoon Shadel (No. 18). These conditions are expected to moderate peak heating compared with clearer summer days. Historical late-August averages for Shanghai hover near 31–32°C, providing climatological support, while recent days have seen similar or slightly higher readings (32–33°C) before the system’s influence strengthens. The typhoon’s peripheral effects—elevated humidity, reduced sunshine, and potential gusts—represent the key near-term driver limiting upside to 33°C or above, which carries minimal market weight. Updated model runs and official briefings through August 27–28 will refine the exact maximum, with traders weighting the balance between residual warmth and rain-cooled conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 28?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 28?
31°C 55%
32°C 31%
30°C 10%
29°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
3%
30°C
10%
31°C
55%
32°C
31%
33°C
3%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 55%
32°C 31%
30°C 10%
29°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
25°C or below
$184 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$185 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$195 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$562 Vol.
1%
29°C
$1,378 Vol.
3%
30°C
$2,258 Vol.
10%
31°C
$1,664 Vol.
55%
32°C
$1,491 Vol.
31%
33°C
$1,000 Vol.
3%
34°C
$94 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$83 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from official and international models centers on a daily high of 31–32°C for Shanghai on August 28, 2026, aligning with the market's strong implied probabilities (31°C at 55.5%, 32°C at 30%).**
Multiple sources, including the China Meteorological Administration and global models, project highs in this narrow range amid increasing cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and easterly to northeasterly winds associated with Typhoon Shadel (No. 18). These conditions are expected to moderate peak heating compared with clearer summer days. Historical late-August averages for Shanghai hover near 31–32°C, providing climatological support, while recent days have seen similar or slightly higher readings (32–33°C) before the system’s influence strengthens.
The typhoon’s peripheral effects—elevated humidity, reduced sunshine, and potential gusts—represent the key near-term driver limiting upside to 33°C or above, which carries minimal market weight. Updated model runs and official briefings through August 27–28 will refine the exact maximum, with traders weighting the balance between residual warmth and rain-cooled conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$9,094End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from official and international models centers on a daily high of 31–32°C for Shanghai on August 28, 2026, aligning with the market's strong implied probabilities (31°C at 55.5%, 32°C at 30%).**
Multiple sources, including the China Meteorological Administration and global models, project highs in this narrow range amid increasing cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and easterly to northeasterly winds associated with Typhoon Shadel (No. 18). These conditions are expected to moderate peak heating compared with clearer summer days. Historical late-August averages for Shanghai hover near 31–32°C, providing climatological support, while recent days have seen similar or slightly higher readings (32–33°C) before the system’s influence strengthens.
The typhoon’s peripheral effects—elevated humidity, reduced sunshine, and potential gusts—represent the key near-term driver limiting upside to 33°C or above, which carries minimal market weight. Updated model runs and official briefings through August 27–28 will refine the exact maximum, with traders weighting the balance between residual warmth and rain-cooled conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,094End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from official and international models centers on a daily high of 31–32°C for Shanghai on August 28, 2026, aligning with the market's strong implied probabilities (31°C at 55.5%, 32°C at 30%).** Multiple sources, including the China Meteorological Administration and global models, project highs in this narrow range amid increasing cloud cover, scattered showers or thunderstorms, and easterly to northeasterly winds associated with Typhoon Shadel (No. 18). These conditions are expected to moderate peak heating compared with clearer summer days. Historical late-August averages for Shanghai hover near 31–32°C, providing climatological support, while recent days have seen similar or slightly higher readings (32–33°C) before the system’s influence strengthens. The typhoon’s peripheral effects—elevated humidity, reduced sunshine, and potential gusts—represent the key near-term driver limiting upside to 33°C or above, which carries minimal market weight. Updated model runs and official briefings through August 27–28 will refine the exact maximum, with traders weighting the balance between residual warmth and rain-cooled conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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