Current forecasts from regional models point to an overnight low near 27–28 °C in Guangzhou on August 28, driven by persistent high humidity near 90 %, widespread cloud cover, and light winds that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Scattered rain and thunderstorms moderate temperatures further by releasing latent heat and maintaining a moist boundary layer typical of the subtropical monsoon regime. Small differences in the timing and coverage of overnight precipitation across ensemble runs create the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 27–28 °C, while clearer intervals or heavier localized downpours could nudge the recorded minimum 1–2 °C lower or higher. Updated model guidance expected before dawn will likely refine these thresholds.