**Recent short-term forecasts for Shanghai on August 28, 2026, consistently point to an overnight low near 27–28°C, aligning with the market’s heavy concentration on those two outcomes (combined ~93% implied probability).** Shanghai’s subtropical monsoon climate in late August features high humidity, typical diurnal ranges of 5–7°C, and frequent cloud cover or light rain that moderates extremes. Official and model guidance (including Chinese meteorological sources and international forecasts) show highs of 31–33°C and lows of 27–28°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with possible showers, influenced by a nearby typhoon system expected to increase moisture and wind but not sharply alter temperatures by the 28th. Recent days have seen similar lows of 26–28°C amid persistent cloudy and rainy patterns, supporting limited downside risk below 27°C or upside above 28°C. Traders appear to be pricing the strong near-term model consensus and historical late-August baselines while noting the narrow uncertainty window before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on August 28?
27°C 54%
28°C 40%
26°C 6%
25°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
5%
26°C
6%
27°C
54%
28°C
40%
29°C
4%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 54%
28°C 40%
26°C 6%
25°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
23°C or below
$42 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$63 Vol.
1%
25°C
$15 Vol.
5%
26°C
$15 Vol.
6%
27°C
$367 Vol.
54%
28°C
$149 Vol.
40%
29°C
$15 Vol.
4%
30°C
$37 Vol.
1%
31°C
$42 Vol.
1%
32°C
$154 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$197 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent short-term forecasts for Shanghai on August 28, 2026, consistently point to an overnight low near 27–28°C, aligning with the market’s heavy concentration on those two outcomes (combined ~93% implied probability).**
Shanghai’s subtropical monsoon climate in late August features high humidity, typical diurnal ranges of 5–7°C, and frequent cloud cover or light rain that moderates extremes. Official and model guidance (including Chinese meteorological sources and international forecasts) show highs of 31–33°C and lows of 27–28°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with possible showers, influenced by a nearby typhoon system expected to increase moisture and wind but not sharply alter temperatures by the 28th. Recent days have seen similar lows of 26–28°C amid persistent cloudy and rainy patterns, supporting limited downside risk below 27°C or upside above 28°C.
Traders appear to be pricing the strong near-term model consensus and historical late-August baselines while noting the narrow uncertainty window before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,095End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent short-term forecasts for Shanghai on August 28, 2026, consistently point to an overnight low near 27–28°C, aligning with the market’s heavy concentration on those two outcomes (combined ~93% implied probability).**
Shanghai’s subtropical monsoon climate in late August features high humidity, typical diurnal ranges of 5–7°C, and frequent cloud cover or light rain that moderates extremes. Official and model guidance (including Chinese meteorological sources and international forecasts) show highs of 31–33°C and lows of 27–28°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with possible showers, influenced by a nearby typhoon system expected to increase moisture and wind but not sharply alter temperatures by the 28th. Recent days have seen similar lows of 26–28°C amid persistent cloudy and rainy patterns, supporting limited downside risk below 27°C or upside above 28°C.
Traders appear to be pricing the strong near-term model consensus and historical late-August baselines while noting the narrow uncertainty window before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,095End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent short-term forecasts for Shanghai on August 28, 2026, consistently point to an overnight low near 27–28°C, aligning with the market’s heavy concentration on those two outcomes (combined ~93% implied probability).** Shanghai’s subtropical monsoon climate in late August features high humidity, typical diurnal ranges of 5–7°C, and frequent cloud cover or light rain that moderates extremes. Official and model guidance (including Chinese meteorological sources and international forecasts) show highs of 31–33°C and lows of 27–28°C under partly cloudy to overcast skies with possible showers, influenced by a nearby typhoon system expected to increase moisture and wind but not sharply alter temperatures by the 28th. Recent days have seen similar lows of 26–28°C amid persistent cloudy and rainy patterns, supporting limited downside risk below 27°C or upside above 28°C. Traders appear to be pricing the strong near-term model consensus and historical late-August baselines while noting the narrow uncertainty window before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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