Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts for Tokyo indicate a minimum near 22°C on August 30, driven by partly cloudy conditions after scattered showers on the 29th that enhance radiative cooling overnight. High humidity around 70-90% and light northerly winds limit further drops, consistent with late-August climatology where the average low is 22.6°C. Urban heat-island effects and model spreads of 21-24°C across sources like Met Office and Yr.no explain the market concentration on 22°C at 59% implied probability, with lower odds on outliers reflecting uncertainty in exact cloud cover and steering patterns ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 30?
22°C 59%
23°C 21%
20°C 18%
21°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
2%
20°C
18%
21°C
15%
22°C
59%
23°C
21%
24°C
5%
25°C
5%
26°C
8%
27°C or higher
9%
22°C 59%
23°C 21%
20°C 18%
21°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
17°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
18°C
$5 Vol.
2%
19°C
$5 Vol.
2%
20°C
$0 Vol.
18%
21°C
$0 Vol.
15%
22°C
$445 Vol.
59%
23°C
$116 Vol.
21%
24°C
$5 Vol.
5%
25°C
$5 Vol.
5%
26°C
$5 Vol.
8%
27°C or higher
$5 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts for Tokyo indicate a minimum near 22°C on August 30, driven by partly cloudy conditions after scattered showers on the 29th that enhance radiative cooling overnight. High humidity around 70-90% and light northerly winds limit further drops, consistent with late-August climatology where the average low is 22.6°C. Urban heat-island effects and model spreads of 21-24°C across sources like Met Office and Yr.no explain the market concentration on 22°C at 59% implied probability, with lower odds on outliers reflecting uncertainty in exact cloud cover and steering patterns ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$597End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts for Tokyo indicate a minimum near 22°C on August 30, driven by partly cloudy conditions after scattered showers on the 29th that enhance radiative cooling overnight. High humidity around 70-90% and light northerly winds limit further drops, consistent with late-August climatology where the average low is 22.6°C. Urban heat-island effects and model spreads of 21-24°C across sources like Met Office and Yr.no explain the market concentration on 22°C at 59% implied probability, with lower odds on outliers reflecting uncertainty in exact cloud cover and steering patterns ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$597End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA and ensemble forecasts for Tokyo indicate a minimum near 22°C on August 30, driven by partly cloudy conditions after scattered showers on the 29th that enhance radiative cooling overnight. High humidity around 70-90% and light northerly winds limit further drops, consistent with late-August climatology where the average low is 22.6°C. Urban heat-island effects and model spreads of 21-24°C across sources like Met Office and Yr.no explain the market concentration on 22°C at 59% implied probability, with lower odds on outliers reflecting uncertainty in exact cloud cover and steering patterns ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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