**Recent forecasts from multiple models point to a minimum temperature in Warsaw on August 28 around 13–15 °C under high pressure and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.** Southeast winds are expected to strengthen during the day (10–20 km/h), limiting overnight radiative cooling while preventing sharp drops. This setup favors overnight lows in the low-to-mid teens Celsius, consistent with the tight market clustering around 11–14 °C. Current conditions show a stable anticyclone with low humidity and no precipitation, supporting gradual cooling after sunset but not extreme radiative loss. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs introduce modest uncertainty in exact boundary-layer temperatures and wind mixing, which explains why 12 °C and 13 °C lead at ~46 % each while nearby outcomes remain competitive. Traders are weighting the consensus of operational guidance showing a modest cool anomaly relative to the August climatological average low near 15 °C. The next major model updates and any shifts in cloud cover or wind forecasts ahead of resolution will be the key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 28?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 28?
16°C 80%
12°C 47%
13°C 45%
11°C 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
9°C or below
4%
10°C
41%
11°C
44%
12°C
47%
13°C
45%
14°C
44%
15°C
42%
16°C
80%
17°C
7%
18°C
7%
19°C or higher
3%
16°C 80%
12°C 47%
13°C 45%
11°C 44%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
9°C or below
$64 Vol.
4%
10°C
$106 Vol.
41%
11°C
$0 Vol.
44%
12°C
$0 Vol.
47%
13°C
$0 Vol.
45%
14°C
$0 Vol.
44%
15°C
$0 Vol.
42%
16°C
$15 Vol.
80%
17°C
$167 Vol.
7%
18°C
$37 Vol.
7%
19°C or higher
$37 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple models point to a minimum temperature in Warsaw on August 28 around 13–15 °C under high pressure and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.**
Southeast winds are expected to strengthen during the day (10–20 km/h), limiting overnight radiative cooling while preventing sharp drops. This setup favors overnight lows in the low-to-mid teens Celsius, consistent with the tight market clustering around 11–14 °C.
Current conditions show a stable anticyclone with low humidity and no precipitation, supporting gradual cooling after sunset but not extreme radiative loss. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs introduce modest uncertainty in exact boundary-layer temperatures and wind mixing, which explains why 12 °C and 13 °C lead at ~46 % each while nearby outcomes remain competitive.
Traders are weighting the consensus of operational guidance showing a modest cool anomaly relative to the August climatological average low near 15 °C. The next major model updates and any shifts in cloud cover or wind forecasts ahead of resolution will be the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$426End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from multiple models point to a minimum temperature in Warsaw on August 28 around 13–15 °C under high pressure and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.**
Southeast winds are expected to strengthen during the day (10–20 km/h), limiting overnight radiative cooling while preventing sharp drops. This setup favors overnight lows in the low-to-mid teens Celsius, consistent with the tight market clustering around 11–14 °C.
Current conditions show a stable anticyclone with low humidity and no precipitation, supporting gradual cooling after sunset but not extreme radiative loss. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs introduce modest uncertainty in exact boundary-layer temperatures and wind mixing, which explains why 12 °C and 13 °C lead at ~46 % each while nearby outcomes remain competitive.
Traders are weighting the consensus of operational guidance showing a modest cool anomaly relative to the August climatological average low near 15 °C. The next major model updates and any shifts in cloud cover or wind forecasts ahead of resolution will be the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$426End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from multiple models point to a minimum temperature in Warsaw on August 28 around 13–15 °C under high pressure and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.** Southeast winds are expected to strengthen during the day (10–20 km/h), limiting overnight radiative cooling while preventing sharp drops. This setup favors overnight lows in the low-to-mid teens Celsius, consistent with the tight market clustering around 11–14 °C. Current conditions show a stable anticyclone with low humidity and no precipitation, supporting gradual cooling after sunset but not extreme radiative loss. Ensemble spreads in GFS and ECMWF runs introduce modest uncertainty in exact boundary-layer temperatures and wind mixing, which explains why 12 °C and 13 °C lead at ~46 % each while nearby outcomes remain competitive. Traders are weighting the consensus of operational guidance showing a modest cool anomaly relative to the August climatological average low near 15 °C. The next major model updates and any shifts in cloud cover or wind forecasts ahead of resolution will be the key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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