NOAA’s updated outlook maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, forecasting just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes amid strengthening El Niño conditions that boost vertical wind shear across the Main Development Region. As of late August, the basin has produced only four short-lived tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly—with no hurricanes yet and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at just 3.6, far below the 1991–2020 median. Remnants of Dolly are tracking westward with minimal redevelopment odds, while steering patterns and dry air further limit intensification potential before the September–October peak. National Hurricane Center updates and new model runs through early September will provide the next key signals on any late-season threats to U.S. coasts, where historical major-hurricane landfall odds average around 43% but current conditions point lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
$12,934 Vol.
Dec 7, 2026
Texas
11%
Louisiana
15%
Mississippi
5%
Alabama
7%
Florida
62%
Georgia
9%
South Carolina
11%
North Carolina
55%
Virginia
6%
Maryland
8%
Delaware
10%
New Jersey
10%
New York
8%
Connecticut
3%
Rhode Island
9%
Massachusetts
9%
New Hampshire
8%
Maine
8%
Hawaii
12%
$12,934 Vol.
Texas
$104 Vol.
11%
Louisiana
$310 Vol.
15%
Mississippi
$501 Vol.
5%
Alabama
$704 Vol.
7%
Florida
$412 Vol.
62%
Georgia
$1,529 Vol.
9%
South Carolina
$282 Vol.
11%
North Carolina
$96 Vol.
55%
Virginia
$608 Vol.
6%
Maryland
$1,032 Vol.
8%
Delaware
$442 Vol.
10%
New Jersey
$100 Vol.
10%
New York
$822 Vol.
8%
Connecticut
$440 Vol.
3%
Rhode Island
$1,083 Vol.
9%
Massachusetts
$1,328 Vol.
9%
New Hampshire
$851 Vol.
8%
Maine
$1,649 Vol.
8%
Hawaii
$642 Vol.
12%
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.NOAA’s updated outlook maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, forecasting just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes amid strengthening El Niño conditions that boost vertical wind shear across the Main Development Region. As of late August, the basin has produced only four short-lived tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly—with no hurricanes yet and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at just 3.6, far below the 1991–2020 median. Remnants of Dolly are tracking westward with minimal redevelopment odds, while steering patterns and dry air further limit intensification potential before the September–October peak. National Hurricane Center updates and new model runs through early September will provide the next key signals on any late-season threats to U.S. coasts, where historical major-hurricane landfall odds average around 43% but current conditions point lower.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
Volume
$12,934End Date
Dec 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.NOAA’s updated outlook maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, forecasting just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes amid strengthening El Niño conditions that boost vertical wind shear across the Main Development Region. As of late August, the basin has produced only four short-lived tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly—with no hurricanes yet and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at just 3.6, far below the 1991–2020 median. Remnants of Dolly are tracking westward with minimal redevelopment odds, while steering patterns and dry air further limit intensification potential before the September–October peak. National Hurricane Center updates and new model runs through early September will provide the next key signals on any late-season threats to U.S. coasts, where historical major-hurricane landfall odds average around 43% but current conditions point lower.
This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No".
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes".
Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026.
Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution.
If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.
Volume
$12,934End Date
Dec 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 4:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s updated outlook maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, forecasting just 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes amid strengthening El Niño conditions that boost vertical wind shear across the Main Development Region. As of late August, the basin has produced only four short-lived tropical storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, and Dolly—with no hurricanes yet and Accumulated Cyclone Energy at just 3.6, far below the 1991–2020 median. Remnants of Dolly are tracking westward with minimal redevelopment odds, while steering patterns and dry air further limit intensification potential before the September–October peak. National Hurricane Center updates and new model runs through early September will provide the next key signals on any late-season threats to U.S. coasts, where historical major-hurricane landfall odds average around 43% but current conditions point lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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