Recent polling in Amazonas shows Capitão Alberto Neto holding a lead for one Senate seat while the second vacancy remains contested in a technical tie among Wilson Lima, Eduardo Braga, and Plínio Valério. Late-August surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest place Neto ahead on first-preference votes, with the remaining frontrunners separated by margins inside the error range and substantial shares of undecided or blank ballots. This distribution keeps implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered, as traders price the outcome around the ongoing competition for the open seat. The race could separate with further polling shifts, candidate alliances, or turnout patterns among key regional blocs ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCapitão Alberto Neto 50%
Wilson Lima 34%
Plinio Valério 9.6%
Eduardo Braga 7.9%
$11,109 Vol.
$11,109 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Alberto Neto
50%
Wilson Lima
34%
Plinio Valério
10%
Eduardo Braga
8%
Dailson Corrêa
<1%
Evandro de Oliveira
<1%
Xuxa do Amazonas
<1%
Ismael Munduruku
<1%
Professora Evany
<1%
Capitão Alberto Neto 50%
Wilson Lima 34%
Plinio Valério 9.6%
Eduardo Braga 7.9%
$11,109 Vol.
$11,109 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Alberto Neto
$4,147 Vol.
50%
Wilson Lima
$2,579 Vol.
34%
Plinio Valério
$539 Vol.
10%
Eduardo Braga
$1,301 Vol.
8%
Dailson Corrêa
$410 Vol.
<1%
Evandro de Oliveira
$412 Vol.
<1%
Xuxa do Amazonas
$657 Vol.
<1%
Ismael Munduruku
$385 Vol.
<1%
Professora Evany
$679 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amazonas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Amazonas shows Capitão Alberto Neto holding a lead for one Senate seat while the second vacancy remains contested in a technical tie among Wilson Lima, Eduardo Braga, and Plínio Valério. Late-August surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest place Neto ahead on first-preference votes, with the remaining frontrunners separated by margins inside the error range and substantial shares of undecided or blank ballots. This distribution keeps implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered, as traders price the outcome around the ongoing competition for the open seat. The race could separate with further polling shifts, candidate alliances, or turnout patterns among key regional blocs ahead of the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amazonas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:52 AM ET
Volume
$11,109End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amazonas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Amazonas shows Capitão Alberto Neto holding a lead for one Senate seat while the second vacancy remains contested in a technical tie among Wilson Lima, Eduardo Braga, and Plínio Valério. Late-August surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest place Neto ahead on first-preference votes, with the remaining frontrunners separated by margins inside the error range and substantial shares of undecided or blank ballots. This distribution keeps implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered, as traders price the outcome around the ongoing competition for the open seat. The race could separate with further polling shifts, candidate alliances, or turnout patterns among key regional blocs ahead of the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Amazonas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$11,109End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:52 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Amazonas shows Capitão Alberto Neto holding a lead for one Senate seat while the second vacancy remains contested in a technical tie among Wilson Lima, Eduardo Braga, and Plínio Valério. Late-August surveys from Real Time Big Data and Quaest place Neto ahead on first-preference votes, with the remaining frontrunners separated by margins inside the error range and substantial shares of undecided or blank ballots. This distribution keeps implied probabilities for second place tightly clustered, as traders price the outcome around the ongoing competition for the open seat. The race could separate with further polling shifts, candidate alliances, or turnout patterns among key regional blocs ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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