Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high probability of widespread thunderstorms and heavy rainfall across Chengdu on August 28, driven by persistent monsoon moisture and unstable atmospheric conditions, which will limit solar heating and cap daytime maxima near 31–33°C according to NHC-equivalent guidance and regional meteorological agencies. This explains why market-implied odds cluster around 32–34°C while assigning roughly 30% probability to 35°C or higher—the outcome hinges on the precise timing and intensity of convective outbreaks, with any delayed or localized rain allowing brief periods of stronger insolation to push peaks higher. Recent cooling from 39°C readings earlier in the week reinforces the downward pressure on temperatures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 28?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 28?
35°C or higher 30%
33°C 22%
34°C 18%
32°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
5%
30°C
3%
31°C
10%
32°C
11%
33°C
22%
34°C
18%
35°C or higher
30%
35°C or higher 30%
33°C 22%
34°C 18%
32°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 28, 2026
25°C or below
$273 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$5 Vol.
2%
27°C
$50 Vol.
1%
28°C
$52 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$8 Vol.
5%
30°C
$381 Vol.
3%
31°C
$257 Vol.
10%
32°C
$579 Vol.
11%
33°C
$320 Vol.
22%
34°C
$1,751 Vol.
18%
35°C or higher
$471 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high probability of widespread thunderstorms and heavy rainfall across Chengdu on August 28, driven by persistent monsoon moisture and unstable atmospheric conditions, which will limit solar heating and cap daytime maxima near 31–33°C according to NHC-equivalent guidance and regional meteorological agencies. This explains why market-implied odds cluster around 32–34°C while assigning roughly 30% probability to 35°C or higher—the outcome hinges on the precise timing and intensity of convective outbreaks, with any delayed or localized rain allowing brief periods of stronger insolation to push peaks higher. Recent cooling from 39°C readings earlier in the week reinforces the downward pressure on temperatures.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$4,148End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high probability of widespread thunderstorms and heavy rainfall across Chengdu on August 28, driven by persistent monsoon moisture and unstable atmospheric conditions, which will limit solar heating and cap daytime maxima near 31–33°C according to NHC-equivalent guidance and regional meteorological agencies. This explains why market-implied odds cluster around 32–34°C while assigning roughly 30% probability to 35°C or higher—the outcome hinges on the precise timing and intensity of convective outbreaks, with any delayed or localized rain allowing brief periods of stronger insolation to push peaks higher. Recent cooling from 39°C readings earlier in the week reinforces the downward pressure on temperatures.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,148End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high probability of widespread thunderstorms and heavy rainfall across Chengdu on August 28, driven by persistent monsoon moisture and unstable atmospheric conditions, which will limit solar heating and cap daytime maxima near 31–33°C according to NHC-equivalent guidance and regional meteorological agencies. This explains why market-implied odds cluster around 32–34°C while assigning roughly 30% probability to 35°C or higher—the outcome hinges on the precise timing and intensity of convective outbreaks, with any delayed or localized rain allowing brief periods of stronger insolation to push peaks higher. Recent cooling from 39°C readings earlier in the week reinforces the downward pressure on temperatures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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