Current National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago O’Hare point to an overnight low near 64°F on September 9, driven by southwest winds, 60% storm chances, and increased cloud cover that limits daytime heating while promoting nocturnal cooling. This positions the 67°F-or-below outcome as the market leader at 44.5% implied probability, consistent with climatological averages around 61.5°F and recent cooler advection patterns. Forecast uncertainty from possible model shifts, storm timing, and boundary-layer moisture keeps meaningful probability mass across the 68–73°F ranges, with traders weighting the risk of a warmer minimum if clearing occurs earlier than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 9?
86°F or higher 86%
67°F or below 42%
80-81°F 33%
84-85°F 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
67°F or below
42%
68-69°F
28%
70-71°F
28%
72-73°F
27%
74-75°F
22%
76-77°F
23%
78-79°F
16%
80-81°F
33%
82-83°F
17%
84-85°F
33%
86°F or higher
86%
86°F or higher 86%
67°F or below 42%
80-81°F 33%
84-85°F 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
42%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
28%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
28%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
27%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
22%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
23%
78-79°F
$22 Vol.
16%
80-81°F
$22 Vol.
33%
82-83°F
$22 Vol.
17%
84-85°F
$22 Vol.
33%
86°F or higher
$0 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago O’Hare point to an overnight low near 64°F on September 9, driven by southwest winds, 60% storm chances, and increased cloud cover that limits daytime heating while promoting nocturnal cooling. This positions the 67°F-or-below outcome as the market leader at 44.5% implied probability, consistent with climatological averages around 61.5°F and recent cooler advection patterns. Forecast uncertainty from possible model shifts, storm timing, and boundary-layer moisture keeps meaningful probability mass across the 68–73°F ranges, with traders weighting the risk of a warmer minimum if clearing occurs earlier than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$87End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago O’Hare point to an overnight low near 64°F on September 9, driven by southwest winds, 60% storm chances, and increased cloud cover that limits daytime heating while promoting nocturnal cooling. This positions the 67°F-or-below outcome as the market leader at 44.5% implied probability, consistent with climatological averages around 61.5°F and recent cooler advection patterns. Forecast uncertainty from possible model shifts, storm timing, and boundary-layer moisture keeps meaningful probability mass across the 68–73°F ranges, with traders weighting the risk of a warmer minimum if clearing occurs earlier than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$87End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago O’Hare point to an overnight low near 64°F on September 9, driven by southwest winds, 60% storm chances, and increased cloud cover that limits daytime heating while promoting nocturnal cooling. This positions the 67°F-or-below outcome as the market leader at 44.5% implied probability, consistent with climatological averages around 61.5°F and recent cooler advection patterns. Forecast uncertainty from possible model shifts, storm timing, and boundary-layer moisture keeps meaningful probability mass across the 68–73°F ranges, with traders weighting the risk of a warmer minimum if clearing occurs earlier than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions