National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance indicate a daily high near 80°F for Chicago on September 7 under mostly sunny skies with light east to southeast winds, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 79.3°F. This consensus drives the overwhelming 97.5% market-implied probability for the 80–81°F bin. Recent observations from Chicago O’Hare show temperatures tracking forecast values through the afternoon, with no significant model divergence or incoming warm advection expected to push readings higher. A late-day increase in cloud cover or stronger onshore flow could cap the peak below 80°F, though current guidance assigns low odds to such shifts before sunset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on September 7?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 7?
80-81°F 99.4%
82-83°F <1%
84-85°F <1%
86-87°F <1%
$31,223 Vol.
$31,223 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
99%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 99.4%
82-83°F <1%
84-85°F <1%
86-87°F <1%
$31,223 Vol.
$31,223 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
71°F or below
$1,337 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$819 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,831 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$4,279 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$8,906 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$4,785 Vol.
99%
82-83°F
$4,643 Vol.
1%
84-85°F
$3,429 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$598 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$255 Vol.
<1%
90°F or higher
$341 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance indicate a daily high near 80°F for Chicago on September 7 under mostly sunny skies with light east to southeast winds, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 79.3°F. This consensus drives the overwhelming 97.5% market-implied probability for the 80–81°F bin. Recent observations from Chicago O’Hare show temperatures tracking forecast values through the afternoon, with no significant model divergence or incoming warm advection expected to push readings higher. A late-day increase in cloud cover or stronger onshore flow could cap the peak below 80°F, though current guidance assigns low odds to such shifts before sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$31,223End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance indicate a daily high near 80°F for Chicago on September 7 under mostly sunny skies with light east to southeast winds, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 79.3°F. This consensus drives the overwhelming 97.5% market-implied probability for the 80–81°F bin. Recent observations from Chicago O’Hare show temperatures tracking forecast values through the afternoon, with no significant model divergence or incoming warm advection expected to push readings higher. A late-day increase in cloud cover or stronger onshore flow could cap the peak below 80°F, though current guidance assigns low odds to such shifts before sunset.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$31,223End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts and supporting model guidance indicate a daily high near 80°F for Chicago on September 7 under mostly sunny skies with light east to southeast winds, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average of 79.3°F. This consensus drives the overwhelming 97.5% market-implied probability for the 80–81°F bin. Recent observations from Chicago O’Hare show temperatures tracking forecast values through the afternoon, with no significant model divergence or incoming warm advection expected to push readings higher. A late-day increase in cloud cover or stronger onshore flow could cap the peak below 80°F, though current guidance assigns low odds to such shifts before sunset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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