**Trader consensus heavily favors a 64-65°F minimum in Chicago on September 7, 2026, at 95.5% implied probability.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance converge on this range, with O’Hare expected to reach a daytime high near 80°F under mostly sunny skies before falling to a low in the mid-60s overnight. Recent observations reinforce the outlook: September 6 recorded a minimum of 68°F, and persistent mild air with light easterly winds and limited radiational cooling have kept temperatures above the 1991–2020 average low of 62.3°F. The strong market alignment reflects the tight clustering of short-range model runs and the absence of any incoming cold front or clear-sky surge that could drive the minimum below 64°F. A realistic challenge would require a sharper-than-forecast drop in dew points or unexpected clear conditions allowing greater overnight cooling, though current atmospheric stability makes such a shift unlikely before the calendar day ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on September 7?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 7?
64-65°F 96%
62-63°F 14%
60-61°F 5%
57°F or below 1.0%
$2,441 Vol.
$2,441 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
57°F or below
1%
58-59°F
1%
60-61°F
5%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
96%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76°F or higher
<1%
64-65°F 96%
62-63°F 14%
60-61°F 5%
57°F or below 1.0%
$2,441 Vol.
$2,441 Vol.
Sep 7, 2026
57°F or below
$78 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$65 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$25 Vol.
5%
62-63°F
$25 Vol.
14%
64-65°F
$307 Vol.
96%
66-67°F
$42 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$50 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$77 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$40 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$65 Vol.
<1%
76°F or higher
$1,666 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 64-65°F minimum in Chicago on September 7, 2026, at 95.5% implied probability.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance converge on this range, with O’Hare expected to reach a daytime high near 80°F under mostly sunny skies before falling to a low in the mid-60s overnight. Recent observations reinforce the outlook: September 6 recorded a minimum of 68°F, and persistent mild air with light easterly winds and limited radiational cooling have kept temperatures above the 1991–2020 average low of 62.3°F. The strong market alignment reflects the tight clustering of short-range model runs and the absence of any incoming cold front or clear-sky surge that could drive the minimum below 64°F. A realistic challenge would require a sharper-than-forecast drop in dew points or unexpected clear conditions allowing greater overnight cooling, though current atmospheric stability makes such a shift unlikely before the calendar day ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 5, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$2,441End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 64-65°F minimum in Chicago on September 7, 2026, at 95.5% implied probability.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance converge on this range, with O’Hare expected to reach a daytime high near 80°F under mostly sunny skies before falling to a low in the mid-60s overnight. Recent observations reinforce the outlook: September 6 recorded a minimum of 68°F, and persistent mild air with light easterly winds and limited radiational cooling have kept temperatures above the 1991–2020 average low of 62.3°F. The strong market alignment reflects the tight clustering of short-range model runs and the absence of any incoming cold front or clear-sky surge that could drive the minimum below 64°F. A realistic challenge would require a sharper-than-forecast drop in dew points or unexpected clear conditions allowing greater overnight cooling, though current atmospheric stability makes such a shift unlikely before the calendar day ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,441End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Sep 5, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors a 64-65°F minimum in Chicago on September 7, 2026, at 95.5% implied probability.** Official National Weather Service forecasts and model guidance converge on this range, with O’Hare expected to reach a daytime high near 80°F under mostly sunny skies before falling to a low in the mid-60s overnight. Recent observations reinforce the outlook: September 6 recorded a minimum of 68°F, and persistent mild air with light easterly winds and limited radiational cooling have kept temperatures above the 1991–2020 average low of 62.3°F. The strong market alignment reflects the tight clustering of short-range model runs and the absence of any incoming cold front or clear-sky surge that could drive the minimum below 64°F. A realistic challenge would require a sharper-than-forecast drop in dew points or unexpected clear conditions allowing greater overnight cooling, though current atmospheric stability makes such a shift unlikely before the calendar day ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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