Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago O’Hare points to a daytime high in the mid-80s on September 8 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, keeping the market’s leading 84–85 °F bin (43 % implied probability) in front. A modest warm-air advection pattern following early-September heat has lifted baseline temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 79 °F, while increasing mid-level moisture and afternoon cloud cover cap further warming and explain why the 86–87 °F tier trails at 24 %. With the official high measured at the airport station and minimal model spread in the latest runs, traders are assigning low odds to extremes outside the 82–87 °F window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on September 8?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 8?
84-85°F 43%
86-87°F 24%
82-83°F 22%
80-81°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
77°F or below
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
43%
86-87°F
24%
88-89°F
6%
90-91°F
3%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 43%
86-87°F 24%
82-83°F 22%
80-81°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
77°F or below
$302 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$297 Vol.
1%
80-81°F
$604 Vol.
6%
82-83°F
$592 Vol.
22%
84-85°F
$1,240 Vol.
43%
86-87°F
$1,068 Vol.
24%
88-89°F
$641 Vol.
6%
90-91°F
$207 Vol.
3%
92-93°F
$162 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$318 Vol.
<1%
96°F or higher
$178 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago O’Hare points to a daytime high in the mid-80s on September 8 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, keeping the market’s leading 84–85 °F bin (43 % implied probability) in front. A modest warm-air advection pattern following early-September heat has lifted baseline temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 79 °F, while increasing mid-level moisture and afternoon cloud cover cap further warming and explain why the 86–87 °F tier trails at 24 %. With the official high measured at the airport station and minimal model spread in the latest runs, traders are assigning low odds to extremes outside the 82–87 °F window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,611End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago O’Hare points to a daytime high in the mid-80s on September 8 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, keeping the market’s leading 84–85 °F bin (43 % implied probability) in front. A modest warm-air advection pattern following early-September heat has lifted baseline temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 79 °F, while increasing mid-level moisture and afternoon cloud cover cap further warming and explain why the 86–87 °F tier trails at 24 %. With the official high measured at the airport station and minimal model spread in the latest runs, traders are assigning low odds to extremes outside the 82–87 °F window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,611End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago O’Hare points to a daytime high in the mid-80s on September 8 under partly cloudy skies and light southerly flow, keeping the market’s leading 84–85 °F bin (43 % implied probability) in front. A modest warm-air advection pattern following early-September heat has lifted baseline temperatures several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 79 °F, while increasing mid-level moisture and afternoon cloud cover cap further warming and explain why the 86–87 °F tier trails at 24 %. With the official high measured at the airport station and minimal model spread in the latest runs, traders are assigning low odds to extremes outside the 82–87 °F window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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