Recent polling from Quaest shows a technical three-way tie in Rio Grande do Norte's October 4 gubernatorial contest, with Allyson Bezerra (União Brasil) at 25%, Cadu Xavier (PT) at 21%, and Álvaro Dias (PL) at 19% within the 3-point margin of error and sizable undecided and blank/null shares. This fragmented field, featuring candidates with prior executive or legislative experience across different parties, sustains competitive dynamics as voters weigh regional priorities and turnout patterns ahead of the first round. Trader consensus prices Allyson highest at 59.5% while keeping Cadu and Álvaro in the low-to-mid teens, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of her slight polling edge and name recognition. Further surveys, candidate debates, or shifts in coalition support could widen gaps before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAllyson 60%
Cadu de Lula 16%
Álvaro Dias 15%
Professor Roberio Paulino <1%
$18,283 Vol.
$18,283 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Allyson
60%
Cadu de Lula
16%
Álvaro Dias
15%
Professor Roberio Paulino
<1%
Rodrigo Bolsonaro
<1%
Arinalda do MLB
<1%
Carlos Jararaca
<1%
Dário Barbosa
<1%
Henrique Lyra
<1%
Allyson 60%
Cadu de Lula 16%
Álvaro Dias 15%
Professor Roberio Paulino <1%
$18,283 Vol.
$18,283 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Allyson
$7,754 Vol.
60%
Cadu de Lula
$5,420 Vol.
16%
Álvaro Dias
$1,460 Vol.
15%
Professor Roberio Paulino
$684 Vol.
<1%
Rodrigo Bolsonaro
$671 Vol.
<1%
Arinalda do MLB
$556 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Jararaca
$579 Vol.
<1%
Dário Barbosa
$575 Vol.
<1%
Henrique Lyra
$584 Vol.
<1%
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Quaest shows a technical three-way tie in Rio Grande do Norte's October 4 gubernatorial contest, with Allyson Bezerra (União Brasil) at 25%, Cadu Xavier (PT) at 21%, and Álvaro Dias (PL) at 19% within the 3-point margin of error and sizable undecided and blank/null shares. This fragmented field, featuring candidates with prior executive or legislative experience across different parties, sustains competitive dynamics as voters weigh regional priorities and turnout patterns ahead of the first round. Trader consensus prices Allyson highest at 59.5% while keeping Cadu and Álvaro in the low-to-mid teens, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of her slight polling edge and name recognition. Further surveys, candidate debates, or shifts in coalition support could widen gaps before election day.
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$18,283End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Quaest shows a technical three-way tie in Rio Grande do Norte's October 4 gubernatorial contest, with Allyson Bezerra (União Brasil) at 25%, Cadu Xavier (PT) at 21%, and Álvaro Dias (PL) at 19% within the 3-point margin of error and sizable undecided and blank/null shares. This fragmented field, featuring candidates with prior executive or legislative experience across different parties, sustains competitive dynamics as voters weigh regional priorities and turnout patterns ahead of the first round. Trader consensus prices Allyson highest at 59.5% while keeping Cadu and Álvaro in the low-to-mid teens, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of her slight polling edge and name recognition. Further surveys, candidate debates, or shifts in coalition support could widen gaps before election day.
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$18,283End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Quaest shows a technical three-way tie in Rio Grande do Norte's October 4 gubernatorial contest, with Allyson Bezerra (União Brasil) at 25%, Cadu Xavier (PT) at 21%, and Álvaro Dias (PL) at 19% within the 3-point margin of error and sizable undecided and blank/null shares. This fragmented field, featuring candidates with prior executive or legislative experience across different parties, sustains competitive dynamics as voters weigh regional priorities and turnout patterns ahead of the first round. Trader consensus prices Allyson highest at 59.5% while keeping Cadu and Álvaro in the low-to-mid teens, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of her slight polling edge and name recognition. Further surveys, candidate debates, or shifts in coalition support could widen gaps before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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