Lula holds the strongest position in trader consensus for first place in Amapá's presidential first round, driven by consistent polling leads in the northern state. A Quaest survey released August 25 showed Lula at 36% versus Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, with all other tested names in single digits or lower, aligning with earlier July data indicating a similar edge for the PT incumbent. Traders price minor candidates such as Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and others near zero, reflecting their negligible support in the same samples. The October 4 voting date and limited volatility in recent state-level surveys reinforce the current implied probabilities, as no major campaign shifts or disqualifications have altered the narrow but persistent Lula advantage in Amapá.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 65%
Flavio Bolsonaro 26%
Hertz Dias 4.9%
Pablo Marçal 2.4%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
65%
Flavio Bolsonaro
26%
Hertz Dias
5%
Pablo Marçal
2%
Clariana Barao
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Samara
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 65%
Flavio Bolsonaro 26%
Hertz Dias 4.9%
Pablo Marçal 2.4%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$937 Vol.
65%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,030 Vol.
26%
Hertz Dias
$698 Vol.
5%
Pablo Marçal
$838 Vol.
2%
Clariana Barao
$214 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$200 Vol.
1%
Samara
$482 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$554 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$493 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$720 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$451 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$418 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$499 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the strongest position in trader consensus for first place in Amapá's presidential first round, driven by consistent polling leads in the northern state. A Quaest survey released August 25 showed Lula at 36% versus Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, with all other tested names in single digits or lower, aligning with earlier July data indicating a similar edge for the PT incumbent. Traders price minor candidates such as Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and others near zero, reflecting their negligible support in the same samples. The October 4 voting date and limited volatility in recent state-level surveys reinforce the current implied probabilities, as no major campaign shifts or disqualifications have altered the narrow but persistent Lula advantage in Amapá.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$7,534End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula holds the strongest position in trader consensus for first place in Amapá's presidential first round, driven by consistent polling leads in the northern state. A Quaest survey released August 25 showed Lula at 36% versus Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, with all other tested names in single digits or lower, aligning with earlier July data indicating a similar edge for the PT incumbent. Traders price minor candidates such as Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and others near zero, reflecting their negligible support in the same samples. The October 4 voting date and limited volatility in recent state-level surveys reinforce the current implied probabilities, as no major campaign shifts or disqualifications have altered the narrow but persistent Lula advantage in Amapá.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,534End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula holds the strongest position in trader consensus for first place in Amapá's presidential first round, driven by consistent polling leads in the northern state. A Quaest survey released August 25 showed Lula at 36% versus Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, with all other tested names in single digits or lower, aligning with earlier July data indicating a similar edge for the PT incumbent. Traders price minor candidates such as Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and others near zero, reflecting their negligible support in the same samples. The October 4 voting date and limited volatility in recent state-level surveys reinforce the current implied probabilities, as no major campaign shifts or disqualifications have altered the narrow but persistent Lula advantage in Amapá.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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