Lula leads recent state-level polling in Amapá for first-round presidential voting on October 4, with a narrow edge over Flávio Bolsonaro in the latest Quaest survey (36% to 33%) and similar margins in prior RealTime Big Data fieldwork. The president’s position reflects established PT support across northern states, combined with the start of official campaigning and free electoral broadcasts. Flávio Bolsonaro remains competitive as the main opposition contender but trails in the state-specific data despite stronger showings elsewhere in the North. Minor candidates including Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and others register in low single digits or below, limiting their path to first place. Trader pricing aligns with these polling trends and the short window before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 66%
Flavio Bolsonaro 27%
Hertz Dias 1.6%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$10,452 Vol.
$10,452 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
66%
Flavio Bolsonaro
27%
Hertz Dias
2%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Lula 66%
Flavio Bolsonaro 27%
Hertz Dias 1.6%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$10,452 Vol.
$10,452 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$2,517 Vol.
66%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,291 Vol.
27%
Hertz Dias
$873 Vol.
2%
Pablo Marçal
$1,062 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$565 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$573 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$295 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$281 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$562 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$499 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$579 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$635 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$720 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads recent state-level polling in Amapá for first-round presidential voting on October 4, with a narrow edge over Flávio Bolsonaro in the latest Quaest survey (36% to 33%) and similar margins in prior RealTime Big Data fieldwork. The president’s position reflects established PT support across northern states, combined with the start of official campaigning and free electoral broadcasts. Flávio Bolsonaro remains competitive as the main opposition contender but trails in the state-specific data despite stronger showings elsewhere in the North. Minor candidates including Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and others register in low single digits or below, limiting their path to first place. Trader pricing aligns with these polling trends and the short window before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$10,452End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads recent state-level polling in Amapá for first-round presidential voting on October 4, with a narrow edge over Flávio Bolsonaro in the latest Quaest survey (36% to 33%) and similar margins in prior RealTime Big Data fieldwork. The president’s position reflects established PT support across northern states, combined with the start of official campaigning and free electoral broadcasts. Flávio Bolsonaro remains competitive as the main opposition contender but trails in the state-specific data despite stronger showings elsewhere in the North. Minor candidates including Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and others register in low single digits or below, limiting their path to first place. Trader pricing aligns with these polling trends and the short window before ballots close.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$10,452End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula leads recent state-level polling in Amapá for first-round presidential voting on October 4, with a narrow edge over Flávio Bolsonaro in the latest Quaest survey (36% to 33%) and similar margins in prior RealTime Big Data fieldwork. The president’s position reflects established PT support across northern states, combined with the start of official campaigning and free electoral broadcasts. Flávio Bolsonaro remains competitive as the main opposition contender but trails in the state-specific data despite stronger showings elsewhere in the North. Minor candidates including Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and others register in low single digits or below, limiting their path to first place. Trader pricing aligns with these polling trends and the short window before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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