Recent polls in Amazonas show a tight first-round contest between incumbent President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), with Lula at 38-40% and Flávio at 35-39% in late August 2026 surveys by Quaest and Real Time Big Data; minor candidates including Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and others trail well behind at single digits or lower. Trader consensus favoring Lula for first place reflects the state's historical pattern of backing the eventual national winner, Lula's established regional support base in the North, and the limited time before the October 4 vote for challengers to close gaps. Low probabilities for other names align with their marginal polling and lack of recent momentum or endorsements that could shift first-place positioning in this key electoral college.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 62%
Flavio Bolsonaro 37%
Renan Santos <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$19,289 Vol.
$19,289 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
62%
Flavio Bolsonaro
37%
Renan Santos
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 62%
Flavio Bolsonaro 37%
Renan Santos <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$19,289 Vol.
$19,289 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$6,150 Vol.
62%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$4,790 Vol.
37%
Renan Santos
$944 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$823 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$729 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$571 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$747 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$836 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$751 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$855 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$542 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$908 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$641 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls in Amazonas show a tight first-round contest between incumbent President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), with Lula at 38-40% and Flávio at 35-39% in late August 2026 surveys by Quaest and Real Time Big Data; minor candidates including Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and others trail well behind at single digits or lower. Trader consensus favoring Lula for first place reflects the state's historical pattern of backing the eventual national winner, Lula's established regional support base in the North, and the limited time before the October 4 vote for challengers to close gaps. Low probabilities for other names align with their marginal polling and lack of recent momentum or endorsements that could shift first-place positioning in this key electoral college.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$19,289End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls in Amazonas show a tight first-round contest between incumbent President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), with Lula at 38-40% and Flávio at 35-39% in late August 2026 surveys by Quaest and Real Time Big Data; minor candidates including Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and others trail well behind at single digits or lower. Trader consensus favoring Lula for first place reflects the state's historical pattern of backing the eventual national winner, Lula's established regional support base in the North, and the limited time before the October 4 vote for challengers to close gaps. Low probabilities for other names align with their marginal polling and lack of recent momentum or endorsements that could shift first-place positioning in this key electoral college.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$19,289End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls in Amazonas show a tight first-round contest between incumbent President Lula (PT) and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), with Lula at 38-40% and Flávio at 35-39% in late August 2026 surveys by Quaest and Real Time Big Data; minor candidates including Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and others trail well behind at single digits or lower. Trader consensus favoring Lula for first place reflects the state's historical pattern of backing the eventual national winner, Lula's established regional support base in the North, and the limited time before the October 4 vote for challengers to close gaps. Low probabilities for other names align with their marginal polling and lack of recent momentum or endorsements that could shift first-place positioning in this key electoral college.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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