Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a dominant trader consensus for first place in the Espírito Santo first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state's consistent conservative leanings and historical support for PL-aligned candidates in recent national contests. Recent regional surveys, including Real Time Big Data polling from mid-2026, show him in a technical tie or narrow lead over Lula amid elevated federal government disapproval ratings exceeding 50 percent in the state. This positioning draws from broader Southeast trends where Flávio has posted competitive or leading numbers in contemporaneous state-level data from São Paulo and other areas, while lower-priced contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Lula face structural barriers from vote fragmentation and limited local momentum. With the first round scheduled for October, shifts could still arise from late campaign developments, turnout patterns among swing voters, or evolving coalition alignments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 88%
Lula 7.9%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 2.9%
Hertz Dias <1%
$15,008 Vol.
$15,008 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
88%
Lula
8%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
3%
Hertz Dias
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Zema
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 88%
Lula 7.9%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 2.9%
Hertz Dias <1%
$15,008 Vol.
$15,008 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$7,973 Vol.
88%
Lula
$299 Vol.
8%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$927 Vol.
3%
Hertz Dias
$738 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$643 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$645 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$307 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$326 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$338 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$722 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$699 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$644 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$746 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a dominant trader consensus for first place in the Espírito Santo first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state's consistent conservative leanings and historical support for PL-aligned candidates in recent national contests. Recent regional surveys, including Real Time Big Data polling from mid-2026, show him in a technical tie or narrow lead over Lula amid elevated federal government disapproval ratings exceeding 50 percent in the state. This positioning draws from broader Southeast trends where Flávio has posted competitive or leading numbers in contemporaneous state-level data from São Paulo and other areas, while lower-priced contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Lula face structural barriers from vote fragmentation and limited local momentum. With the first round scheduled for October, shifts could still arise from late campaign developments, turnout patterns among swing voters, or evolving coalition alignments.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Volume
$15,008End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a dominant trader consensus for first place in the Espírito Santo first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state's consistent conservative leanings and historical support for PL-aligned candidates in recent national contests. Recent regional surveys, including Real Time Big Data polling from mid-2026, show him in a technical tie or narrow lead over Lula amid elevated federal government disapproval ratings exceeding 50 percent in the state. This positioning draws from broader Southeast trends where Flávio has posted competitive or leading numbers in contemporaneous state-level data from São Paulo and other areas, while lower-priced contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Lula face structural barriers from vote fragmentation and limited local momentum. With the first round scheduled for October, shifts could still arise from late campaign developments, turnout patterns among swing voters, or evolving coalition alignments.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$15,008End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a dominant trader consensus for first place in the Espírito Santo first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state's consistent conservative leanings and historical support for PL-aligned candidates in recent national contests. Recent regional surveys, including Real Time Big Data polling from mid-2026, show him in a technical tie or narrow lead over Lula amid elevated federal government disapproval ratings exceeding 50 percent in the state. This positioning draws from broader Southeast trends where Flávio has posted competitive or leading numbers in contemporaneous state-level data from São Paulo and other areas, while lower-priced contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Renan Santos, and Lula face structural barriers from vote fragmentation and limited local momentum. With the first round scheduled for October, shifts could still arise from late campaign developments, turnout patterns among swing voters, or evolving coalition alignments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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