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Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Espírito Santo

icon for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Espírito Santo
Politics·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Espírito Santo

Flavio Bolsonaro 89%

Lula 6.9%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi 1.9%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Polymarket

$17,646 Vol.

Flavio Bolsonaro 89%

Lula 6.9%

Veterinário Wilson Grassi 1.9%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Polymarket

$17,646 Vol.

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$8,657 Vol.

89%

icon for Lula

Lula

$485 Vol.

7%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$1,037 Vol.

2%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$798 Vol.

1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$891 Vol.

1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$796 Vol.

1%

icon for Escritor Augusto Cury

Escritor Augusto Cury

$876 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$460 Vol.

<1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$479 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$841 Vol.

<1%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$478 Vol.

<1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$974 Vol.

<1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$875 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro leads polling in Espírito Santo for the October 4, 2026, first round, with recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys (conducted August 22–26) showing him at 35–37% against Lula’s 30–34%, amid 15% undecided and low single-digit support for other registered candidates such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury. Espírito Santo has functioned as a consistent Bolsonaro-family stronghold since 2018, reinforced by majority disapproval of Lula’s federal administration in the state. Traders price Flavio’s first-place probability at 88.5% based on this consistent local edge, low fragmentation among rivals, and the absence of major new campaign developments that would shift the narrow but durable gap reflected in the latest data.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$17,646
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro leads polling in Espírito Santo for the October 4, 2026, first round, with recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys (conducted August 22–26) showing him at 35–37% against Lula’s 30–34%, amid 15% undecided and low single-digit support for other registered candidates such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury. Espírito Santo has functioned as a consistent Bolsonaro-family stronghold since 2018, reinforced by majority disapproval of Lula’s federal administration in the state. Traders price Flavio’s first-place probability at 88.5% based on this consistent local edge, low fragmentation among rivals, and the absence of major new campaign developments that would shift the narrow but durable gap reflected in the latest data.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$17,646
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Espírito Santo" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 89%, followed by "Lula" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 89¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Espírito Santo" has generated $17.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Espírito Santo," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Espírito Santo" is "Flavio Bolsonaro" at 89%, meaning the market assigns a 89% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Lula" at 7%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Espírito Santo" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.