**Recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data polls released August 27 show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leading or in a technical tie for first place in Espírito Santo's October 4 first-round presidential vote, with 35-37% support against Lula (PT) at 30-34%.** Other tested names such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register in the low single digits or zero, while undecided voters range from 5-15%. The state has backed Jair Bolsonaro in both 2018 and 2022, and current surveys indicate 53-55% disapproval of Lula's administration among capixaba voters. These results, combined with the absence of stronger challengers in the polling, underpin trader consensus that Flávio holds the clearest path to topping the first-round ballot in the state. Low probabilities for fringe candidates reflect their negligible measured support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 89%
Lula 7.2%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 1.9%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$15,205 Vol.
$15,205 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
89%
Lula
7%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Samara
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 89%
Lula 7.2%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi 1.9%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$15,205 Vol.
$15,205 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$8,652 Vol.
89%
Lula
$459 Vol.
7%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$1,037 Vol.
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
$798 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$891 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$796 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$841 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$460 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$479 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$876 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$974 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$478 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$875 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data polls released August 27 show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leading or in a technical tie for first place in Espírito Santo's October 4 first-round presidential vote, with 35-37% support against Lula (PT) at 30-34%.** Other tested names such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register in the low single digits or zero, while undecided voters range from 5-15%. The state has backed Jair Bolsonaro in both 2018 and 2022, and current surveys indicate 53-55% disapproval of Lula's administration among capixaba voters. These results, combined with the absence of stronger challengers in the polling, underpin trader consensus that Flávio holds the clearest path to topping the first-round ballot in the state. Low probabilities for fringe candidates reflect their negligible measured support.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Volume
$15,205End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data polls released August 27 show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leading or in a technical tie for first place in Espírito Santo's October 4 first-round presidential vote, with 35-37% support against Lula (PT) at 30-34%.** Other tested names such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register in the low single digits or zero, while undecided voters range from 5-15%. The state has backed Jair Bolsonaro in both 2018 and 2022, and current surveys indicate 53-55% disapproval of Lula's administration among capixaba voters. These results, combined with the absence of stronger challengers in the polling, underpin trader consensus that Flávio holds the clearest path to topping the first-round ballot in the state. Low probabilities for fringe candidates reflect their negligible measured support.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Espírito Santo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Espírito Santo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Espírito Santo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$15,205End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data polls released August 27 show Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leading or in a technical tie for first place in Espírito Santo's October 4 first-round presidential vote, with 35-37% support against Lula (PT) at 30-34%.** Other tested names such as Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register in the low single digits or zero, while undecided voters range from 5-15%. The state has backed Jair Bolsonaro in both 2018 and 2022, and current surveys indicate 53-55% disapproval of Lula's administration among capixaba voters. These results, combined with the absence of stronger challengers in the polling, underpin trader consensus that Flávio holds the clearest path to topping the first-round ballot in the state. Low probabilities for fringe candidates reflect their negligible measured support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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