Lula maintains a commanding lead in Paraíba for the October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote, underpinned by the incumbent's entrenched regional base in Brazil's Northeast and consistent polling advantages of 50-55% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 21-26%. Recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from late August show Lula with government approval near 55-61% and lower rejection rates than rivals, while fragmented support for names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Pablo Marçal remains in single digits. Trader consensus at 96.2% reflects these patterns and the state's historical PT alignment ahead of the campaign's free broadcast period. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include late voter swings among the roughly 18% undecided or changeable respondents, uneven turnout, or unexpected national developments affecting local sentiment before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 96.2%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
96%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Zema
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Lula 96.2%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$4,184 Vol.
96%
Edmilson Costa
$431 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$483 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$431 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$431 Vol.
1%
Zema
$431 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$493 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$431 Vol.
1%
Samara
$431 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$431 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$431 Vol.
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$452 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$431 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Paraíba for the October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote, underpinned by the incumbent's entrenched regional base in Brazil's Northeast and consistent polling advantages of 50-55% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 21-26%. Recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from late August show Lula with government approval near 55-61% and lower rejection rates than rivals, while fragmented support for names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Pablo Marçal remains in single digits. Trader consensus at 96.2% reflects these patterns and the state's historical PT alignment ahead of the campaign's free broadcast period. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include late voter swings among the roughly 18% undecided or changeable respondents, uneven turnout, or unexpected national developments affecting local sentiment before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$9,492End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Paraíba for the October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote, underpinned by the incumbent's entrenched regional base in Brazil's Northeast and consistent polling advantages of 50-55% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 21-26%. Recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from late August show Lula with government approval near 55-61% and lower rejection rates than rivals, while fragmented support for names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Pablo Marçal remains in single digits. Trader consensus at 96.2% reflects these patterns and the state's historical PT alignment ahead of the campaign's free broadcast period. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include late voter swings among the roughly 18% undecided or changeable respondents, uneven turnout, or unexpected national developments affecting local sentiment before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,492End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Paraíba for the October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote, underpinned by the incumbent's entrenched regional base in Brazil's Northeast and consistent polling advantages of 50-55% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 21-26%. Recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys from late August show Lula with government approval near 55-61% and lower rejection rates than rivals, while fragmented support for names such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Pablo Marçal remains in single digits. Trader consensus at 96.2% reflects these patterns and the state's historical PT alignment ahead of the campaign's free broadcast period. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include late voter swings among the roughly 18% undecided or changeable respondents, uneven turnout, or unexpected national developments affecting local sentiment before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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