Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia polls for the October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state's consistent right-wing alignment since 2018 and Jair Bolsonaro's 70-point margin there in 2022. Recent surveys, including Quaest's late-August reading of 45% for the PL nominee versus 25% for incumbent Lula, show limited support for alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, or Romeu Zema. Local PL strength, including frontrunner Marcos Rogério in the concurrent gubernatorial race, reinforces voter consolidation around the Bolsonaro family brand in this northern state. With formal campaigning underway and few undecided voters shifting, the implied probability remains elevated absent late-breaking national developments or unexpected vote fragmentation among right-leaning options that could narrow the gap before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 97.4%
Renan Santos <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Samara <1%
$13,240 Vol.
$13,240 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Renan Santos
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Lula
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Zema
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.4%
Renan Santos <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Samara <1%
$13,240 Vol.
$13,240 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$7,782 Vol.
97%
Renan Santos
$381 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$491 Vol.
1%
Samara
$461 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$430 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$411 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$401 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$451 Vol.
<1%
Lula
$577 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$471 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$441 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$471 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$471 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia polls for the October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state's consistent right-wing alignment since 2018 and Jair Bolsonaro's 70-point margin there in 2022. Recent surveys, including Quaest's late-August reading of 45% for the PL nominee versus 25% for incumbent Lula, show limited support for alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, or Romeu Zema. Local PL strength, including frontrunner Marcos Rogério in the concurrent gubernatorial race, reinforces voter consolidation around the Bolsonaro family brand in this northern state. With formal campaigning underway and few undecided voters shifting, the implied probability remains elevated absent late-breaking national developments or unexpected vote fragmentation among right-leaning options that could narrow the gap before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$13,240End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia polls for the October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state's consistent right-wing alignment since 2018 and Jair Bolsonaro's 70-point margin there in 2022. Recent surveys, including Quaest's late-August reading of 45% for the PL nominee versus 25% for incumbent Lula, show limited support for alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, or Romeu Zema. Local PL strength, including frontrunner Marcos Rogério in the concurrent gubernatorial race, reinforces voter consolidation around the Bolsonaro family brand in this northern state. With formal campaigning underway and few undecided voters shifting, the implied probability remains elevated absent late-breaking national developments or unexpected vote fragmentation among right-leaning options that could narrow the gap before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$13,240End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia polls for the October 4 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state's consistent right-wing alignment since 2018 and Jair Bolsonaro's 70-point margin there in 2022. Recent surveys, including Quaest's late-August reading of 45% for the PL nominee versus 25% for incumbent Lula, show limited support for alternatives such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, or Romeu Zema. Local PL strength, including frontrunner Marcos Rogério in the concurrent gubernatorial race, reinforces voter consolidation around the Bolsonaro family brand in this northern state. With formal campaigning underway and few undecided voters shifting, the implied probability remains elevated absent late-breaking national developments or unexpected vote fragmentation among right-leaning options that could narrow the gap before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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