Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader assessments for first place in São Paulo's first-round presidential voting, driven by repeated state-level polls showing him at or above 30% while maintaining a narrow edge or technical tie with incumbent Lula. São Paulo's status as Brazil's largest electoral college amplifies the weight of right-leaning voter preferences there, where Lula's disapproval ratings exceed 50% in recent surveys. Other contenders including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in low single digits, limiting vote fragmentation on the right. The October 4 first-round date leaves roughly five weeks for shifts, with potential catalysts including the electoral court's ruling on Pablo Marçal's eligibility, free television advertising time that began in late August, and any consolidation among minor candidates. Late developments in turnout or undecided voters could still narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 6.6%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$12,630 Vol.
$12,630 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
94%
Lula
7%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 94%
Lula 6.6%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$12,630 Vol.
$12,630 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$5,017 Vol.
94%
Lula
$2,417 Vol.
7%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$427 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$426 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$421 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$418 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$365 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$588 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$426 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$714 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$373 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$626 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$412 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader assessments for first place in São Paulo's first-round presidential voting, driven by repeated state-level polls showing him at or above 30% while maintaining a narrow edge or technical tie with incumbent Lula. São Paulo's status as Brazil's largest electoral college amplifies the weight of right-leaning voter preferences there, where Lula's disapproval ratings exceed 50% in recent surveys. Other contenders including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in low single digits, limiting vote fragmentation on the right. The October 4 first-round date leaves roughly five weeks for shifts, with potential catalysts including the electoral court's ruling on Pablo Marçal's eligibility, free television advertising time that began in late August, and any consolidation among minor candidates. Late developments in turnout or undecided voters could still narrow the gap.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$12,630End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader assessments for first place in São Paulo's first-round presidential voting, driven by repeated state-level polls showing him at or above 30% while maintaining a narrow edge or technical tie with incumbent Lula. São Paulo's status as Brazil's largest electoral college amplifies the weight of right-leaning voter preferences there, where Lula's disapproval ratings exceed 50% in recent surveys. Other contenders including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in low single digits, limiting vote fragmentation on the right. The October 4 first-round date leaves roughly five weeks for shifts, with potential catalysts including the electoral court's ruling on Pablo Marçal's eligibility, free television advertising time that began in late August, and any consolidation among minor candidates. Late developments in turnout or undecided voters could still narrow the gap.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$12,630End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in trader assessments for first place in São Paulo's first-round presidential voting, driven by repeated state-level polls showing him at or above 30% while maintaining a narrow edge or technical tie with incumbent Lula. São Paulo's status as Brazil's largest electoral college amplifies the weight of right-leaning voter preferences there, where Lula's disapproval ratings exceed 50% in recent surveys. Other contenders including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in low single digits, limiting vote fragmentation on the right. The October 4 first-round date leaves roughly five weeks for shifts, with potential catalysts including the electoral court's ruling on Pablo Marçal's eligibility, free television advertising time that began in late August, and any consolidation among minor candidates. Late developments in turnout or undecided voters could still narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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