Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models such as GFS and ECMWF show a southerly flow advecting warmer air into central Poland ahead of a weak frontal boundary, supporting maximum temperatures near 29–30°C in Warsaw on September 9 under partly cloudy skies. This places the market-implied probabilities for 29°C and 30°C in close contention, with modest odds on 28°C or 31°C reflecting typical ensemble spread and potential for localized cloud cover or brief showers to trim the peak. Historical September climatology for the city centers around 20–22°C highs, so the current anomaly stems from transient high pressure and reduced mixing. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could shift the consensus if steering winds or boundary timing change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 9?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 9?
29°C 33%
30°C 30%
28°C 15%
31°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
25°C or below
2%
26°C
3%
27°C
7%
28°C
15%
29°C
33%
30°C
30%
31°C
12%
32°C
4%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
1%
29°C 33%
30°C 30%
28°C 15%
31°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
25°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C
$30 Vol.
3%
27°C
$48 Vol.
7%
28°C
$301 Vol.
15%
29°C
$954 Vol.
33%
30°C
$152 Vol.
30%
31°C
$202 Vol.
12%
32°C
$34 Vol.
4%
33°C
$34 Vol.
1%
34°C
$541 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$536 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models such as GFS and ECMWF show a southerly flow advecting warmer air into central Poland ahead of a weak frontal boundary, supporting maximum temperatures near 29–30°C in Warsaw on September 9 under partly cloudy skies. This places the market-implied probabilities for 29°C and 30°C in close contention, with modest odds on 28°C or 31°C reflecting typical ensemble spread and potential for localized cloud cover or brief showers to trim the peak. Historical September climatology for the city centers around 20–22°C highs, so the current anomaly stems from transient high pressure and reduced mixing. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could shift the consensus if steering winds or boundary timing change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,833End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models such as GFS and ECMWF show a southerly flow advecting warmer air into central Poland ahead of a weak frontal boundary, supporting maximum temperatures near 29–30°C in Warsaw on September 9 under partly cloudy skies. This places the market-implied probabilities for 29°C and 30°C in close contention, with modest odds on 28°C or 31°C reflecting typical ensemble spread and potential for localized cloud cover or brief showers to trim the peak. Historical September climatology for the city centers around 20–22°C highs, so the current anomaly stems from transient high pressure and reduced mixing. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could shift the consensus if steering winds or boundary timing change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,833End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models such as GFS and ECMWF show a southerly flow advecting warmer air into central Poland ahead of a weak frontal boundary, supporting maximum temperatures near 29–30°C in Warsaw on September 9 under partly cloudy skies. This places the market-implied probabilities for 29°C and 30°C in close contention, with modest odds on 28°C or 31°C reflecting typical ensemble spread and potential for localized cloud cover or brief showers to trim the peak. Historical September climatology for the city centers around 20–22°C highs, so the current anomaly stems from transient high pressure and reduced mixing. Updated model guidance expected within 24 hours could shift the consensus if steering winds or boundary timing change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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