Latest ensemble forecasts from major global models indicate Warsaw's overnight low on September 9 will likely settle between 15–18°C under a warm southerly flow and mostly clear skies that promote moderate radiational cooling after daytime highs near 28–29°C. Subtle differences in predicted wind speeds, boundary-layer moisture, and cloud cover across the ECMWF and GFS runs create the narrow spread among 16°C, 17°C, and 18°C outcomes, which together command over 85% of market-implied probability. Historical September climatology for the city shows average minima around 11–13°C, underscoring the current anomalous warmth, while the tight clustering of leading probabilities reflects traders' assessment of remaining forecast uncertainty ahead of the next model cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 9?
16°C 32%
17°C 29%
18°C 26%
15°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
11°C or below
8%
12°C
5%
13°C
8%
14°C
8%
15°C
21%
16°C
32%
17°C
29%
18°C
26%
19°C
9%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
8%
16°C 32%
17°C 29%
18°C 26%
15°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
11°C or below
$12 Vol.
8%
12°C
$12 Vol.
5%
13°C
$0 Vol.
8%
14°C
$0 Vol.
8%
15°C
$38 Vol.
21%
16°C
$0 Vol.
32%
17°C
$0 Vol.
29%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$0 Vol.
9%
20°C
$0 Vol.
8%
21°C or higher
$31 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major global models indicate Warsaw's overnight low on September 9 will likely settle between 15–18°C under a warm southerly flow and mostly clear skies that promote moderate radiational cooling after daytime highs near 28–29°C. Subtle differences in predicted wind speeds, boundary-layer moisture, and cloud cover across the ECMWF and GFS runs create the narrow spread among 16°C, 17°C, and 18°C outcomes, which together command over 85% of market-implied probability. Historical September climatology for the city shows average minima around 11–13°C, underscoring the current anomalous warmth, while the tight clustering of leading probabilities reflects traders' assessment of remaining forecast uncertainty ahead of the next model cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$93End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major global models indicate Warsaw's overnight low on September 9 will likely settle between 15–18°C under a warm southerly flow and mostly clear skies that promote moderate radiational cooling after daytime highs near 28–29°C. Subtle differences in predicted wind speeds, boundary-layer moisture, and cloud cover across the ECMWF and GFS runs create the narrow spread among 16°C, 17°C, and 18°C outcomes, which together command over 85% of market-implied probability. Historical September climatology for the city shows average minima around 11–13°C, underscoring the current anomalous warmth, while the tight clustering of leading probabilities reflects traders' assessment of remaining forecast uncertainty ahead of the next model cycle.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$93End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from major global models indicate Warsaw's overnight low on September 9 will likely settle between 15–18°C under a warm southerly flow and mostly clear skies that promote moderate radiational cooling after daytime highs near 28–29°C. Subtle differences in predicted wind speeds, boundary-layer moisture, and cloud cover across the ECMWF and GFS runs create the narrow spread among 16°C, 17°C, and 18°C outcomes, which together command over 85% of market-implied probability. Historical September climatology for the city shows average minima around 11–13°C, underscoring the current anomalous warmth, while the tight clustering of leading probabilities reflects traders' assessment of remaining forecast uncertainty ahead of the next model cycle.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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