Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and European models indicate Warsaw's minimum temperature on September 8 will most likely fall between 11–13 °C, driven by southerly winds advecting milder air and moderate cloud cover limiting overnight radiational cooling. Dew points near 10–12 °C and light to moderate wind speeds further moderate the nocturnal temperature drop, consistent with late-summer climatology for the region. Trader consensus around the 12 °C and 13 °C outcomes reflects tight model agreement on these boundary-layer conditions, while the spread to 11 °C or 14 °C captures residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any localized showers that could alter the low. Updated model runs and official observations will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 8?
14°C 35%
12°C 33%
13°C 31%
11°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
8°C or below
19%
9°C
1%
10°C
9%
11°C
27%
12°C
33%
13°C
31%
14°C
35%
15°C
27%
16°C
7%
17°C
7%
18°C or higher
20%
14°C 35%
12°C 33%
13°C 31%
11°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
8°C or below
$6 Vol.
19%
9°C
$6 Vol.
1%
10°C
$0 Vol.
9%
11°C
$130 Vol.
27%
12°C
$15 Vol.
33%
13°C
$5 Vol.
31%
14°C
$160 Vol.
35%
15°C
$125 Vol.
27%
16°C
$25 Vol.
7%
17°C
$6 Vol.
7%
18°C or higher
$6 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and European models indicate Warsaw's minimum temperature on September 8 will most likely fall between 11–13 °C, driven by southerly winds advecting milder air and moderate cloud cover limiting overnight radiational cooling. Dew points near 10–12 °C and light to moderate wind speeds further moderate the nocturnal temperature drop, consistent with late-summer climatology for the region. Trader consensus around the 12 °C and 13 °C outcomes reflects tight model agreement on these boundary-layer conditions, while the spread to 11 °C or 14 °C captures residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any localized showers that could alter the low. Updated model runs and official observations will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$484End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and European models indicate Warsaw's minimum temperature on September 8 will most likely fall between 11–13 °C, driven by southerly winds advecting milder air and moderate cloud cover limiting overnight radiational cooling. Dew points near 10–12 °C and light to moderate wind speeds further moderate the nocturnal temperature drop, consistent with late-summer climatology for the region. Trader consensus around the 12 °C and 13 °C outcomes reflects tight model agreement on these boundary-layer conditions, while the spread to 11 °C or 14 °C captures residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any localized showers that could alter the low. Updated model runs and official observations will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$484End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and European models indicate Warsaw's minimum temperature on September 8 will most likely fall between 11–13 °C, driven by southerly winds advecting milder air and moderate cloud cover limiting overnight radiational cooling. Dew points near 10–12 °C and light to moderate wind speeds further moderate the nocturnal temperature drop, consistent with late-summer climatology for the region. Trader consensus around the 12 °C and 13 °C outcomes reflects tight model agreement on these boundary-layer conditions, while the spread to 11 °C or 14 °C captures residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any localized showers that could alter the low. Updated model runs and official observations will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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