Recent August 2026 polls from Quaest and Datafolha show a fragmented field for Pernambuco's two Senate seats, with Marília Arraes (PDT) leading numerically at 15-16% but technically tied within margins with Humberto Costa (PT) at 13-14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 9-12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 6-11%. High undecided (26%) and blank/null (24%) shares, plus the ability to vote for two candidates, sustain volatility around second place. Humberto Costa's re-election bid benefits from the João Campos-led Popular Front ticket and PT alignment, while Mendonça Filho's independent PL run and the Lyra-allied PP/PSD candidates draw from opposition bases. These factors, combined with limited campaign momentum since conventions, keep trader-implied probabilities for second place tightly contested among the top four without clear separation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHumberto Costa 39%
Mendonça Filho 27%
Eduardo da Fonte 21.1%
Marília Arraes 11.5%
$23,398 Vol.
$23,398 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Humberto Costa
39%
Mendonça Filho
27%
Eduardo da Fonte
19%
Marília Arraes
11%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Humberto Costa 39%
Mendonça Filho 27%
Eduardo da Fonte 21.1%
Marília Arraes 11.5%
$23,398 Vol.
$23,398 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Humberto Costa
$8,795 Vol.
39%
Mendonça Filho
$4,959 Vol.
27%
Eduardo da Fonte
$774 Vol.
19%
Marília Arraes
$4,180 Vol.
11%
Túlio Gadêlha
$676 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$659 Vol.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$664 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$647 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$494 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$490 Vol.
<1%
Gorett Bitu
$629 Vol.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$433 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent August 2026 polls from Quaest and Datafolha show a fragmented field for Pernambuco's two Senate seats, with Marília Arraes (PDT) leading numerically at 15-16% but technically tied within margins with Humberto Costa (PT) at 13-14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 9-12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 6-11%. High undecided (26%) and blank/null (24%) shares, plus the ability to vote for two candidates, sustain volatility around second place. Humberto Costa's re-election bid benefits from the João Campos-led Popular Front ticket and PT alignment, while Mendonça Filho's independent PL run and the Lyra-allied PP/PSD candidates draw from opposition bases. These factors, combined with limited campaign momentum since conventions, keep trader-implied probabilities for second place tightly contested among the top four without clear separation.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Volume
$23,398End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent August 2026 polls from Quaest and Datafolha show a fragmented field for Pernambuco's two Senate seats, with Marília Arraes (PDT) leading numerically at 15-16% but technically tied within margins with Humberto Costa (PT) at 13-14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 9-12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 6-11%. High undecided (26%) and blank/null (24%) shares, plus the ability to vote for two candidates, sustain volatility around second place. Humberto Costa's re-election bid benefits from the João Campos-led Popular Front ticket and PT alignment, while Mendonça Filho's independent PL run and the Lyra-allied PP/PSD candidates draw from opposition bases. These factors, combined with limited campaign momentum since conventions, keep trader-implied probabilities for second place tightly contested among the top four without clear separation.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$23,398End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August 2026 polls from Quaest and Datafolha show a fragmented field for Pernambuco's two Senate seats, with Marília Arraes (PDT) leading numerically at 15-16% but technically tied within margins with Humberto Costa (PT) at 13-14%, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 9-12%, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 6-11%. High undecided (26%) and blank/null (24%) shares, plus the ability to vote for two candidates, sustain volatility around second place. Humberto Costa's re-election bid benefits from the João Campos-led Popular Front ticket and PT alignment, while Mendonça Filho's independent PL run and the Lyra-allied PP/PSD candidates draw from opposition bases. These factors, combined with limited campaign momentum since conventions, keep trader-implied probabilities for second place tightly contested among the top four without clear separation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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