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icon for Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place

icon for Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place
Politics·Brazil

Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place

Benedita da Silva 59%

Carlos Jordy 14%

Marcelo Crivella 5.2%

Carlos Portinho 5.0%

Polymarket

$32,652 Vol.

Benedita da Silva 59%

Carlos Jordy 14%

Marcelo Crivella 5.2%

Carlos Portinho 5.0%

Polymarket

$32,652 Vol.

icon for Benedita da Silva

Benedita da Silva

$10,409 Vol.

59%

icon for Carlos Jordy

Carlos Jordy

$7,756 Vol.

14%

icon for Marcelo Crivella

Marcelo Crivella

$1,883 Vol.

7%

icon for Carlos Portinho

Carlos Portinho

$2,542 Vol.

5%

icon for Pedro Paulo

Pedro Paulo

$1,764 Vol.

3%

icon for Paula Falcão

Paula Falcão

$845 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ó Clemente

Ó Clemente

$1,252 Vol.

<1%

icon for André Monteiro

André Monteiro

$816 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helio Secco

Helio Secco

$490 Vol.

<1%

icon for Luciano Mattos

Luciano Mattos

$375 Vol.

<1%

icon for Luiz Eugenio

Luiz Eugenio

$763 Vol.

<1%

icon for Marcos Dias

Marcos Dias

$887 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelly Xavier

Michelly Xavier

$671 Vol.

<1%

icon for Monica Benicio

Monica Benicio

$843 Vol.

<1%

icon for Vinicius Benevides

Vinicius Benevides

$649 Vol.

<1%

icon for Waguinho

Waguinho

$707 Vol.

<1%

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Benedita da Silva (PT) leads the Rio de Janeiro Senate race for first place at 60.5% in trader pricing, ahead of a fragmented field where Carlos Jordy (PL) sits at 15.5%, Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos) at 7.0%, Carlos Portinho (PL) at 4.8%, and most other declared candidates below 4% or at minimal levels.** The October 4, 2026, election renews two Senate seats, with voters selecting up to two candidates; the top two finishers win. Late August 2026 polls (Quaest, Datafolha, Paraná) show Benedita numerically ahead at 10-15% of vote intentions amid extreme fragmentation and indecision—roughly 29% undecided plus 28% blank/null in one survey, with the top five names in technical ties within margins of error. Recent catalysts include the official campaign launch, Jordy’s entry boosting PL options, and the withdrawal or repositioning of other right-leaning figures, which has not consolidated opposition support. High candidate volume (over 15 declared) continues to split right-wing and centrist votes, while Benedita benefits from stronger statewide name recognition as a former governor and federal deputy. Traders appear to price her structural edge in finishing first despite low absolute polling shares, reflecting the two-vote mechanics and persistent uncertainty heading into the final stretch.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$32,652
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).**Benedita da Silva (PT) leads the Rio de Janeiro Senate race for first place at 60.5% in trader pricing, ahead of a fragmented field where Carlos Jordy (PL) sits at 15.5%, Marcelo Crivella (Republicanos) at 7.0%, Carlos Portinho (PL) at 4.8%, and most other declared candidates below 4% or at minimal levels.** The October 4, 2026, election renews two Senate seats, with voters selecting up to two candidates; the top two finishers win. Late August 2026 polls (Quaest, Datafolha, Paraná) show Benedita numerically ahead at 10-15% of vote intentions amid extreme fragmentation and indecision—roughly 29% undecided plus 28% blank/null in one survey, with the top five names in technical ties within margins of error. Recent catalysts include the official campaign launch, Jordy’s entry boosting PL options, and the withdrawal or repositioning of other right-leaning figures, which has not consolidated opposition support. High candidate volume (over 15 declared) continues to split right-wing and centrist votes, while Benedita benefits from stronger statewide name recognition as a former governor and federal deputy. Traders appear to price her structural edge in finishing first despite low absolute polling shares, reflecting the two-vote mechanics and persistent uncertainty heading into the final stretch.

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$32,652
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:09 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Benedita da Silva" at 59%, followed by "Carlos Jordy" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place" has generated $32.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place" is "Benedita da Silva" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Carlos Jordy" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Rio de Janeiro Senate Election: 1st Place" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.