Lula maintains a commanding position in Alagoas for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state's status as a Northeast stronghold where the incumbent enjoys consistent regional backing and approval ratings above 50 percent. A late-August Quaest survey placed him at 44 percent against Flávio Bolsonaro at 29 percent, with all other candidates at 2 percent or below and notable shares undecided or blank. Flávio Bolsonaro's recent campaign stops in the state, including events in Maceió and Arapiraca, have not narrowed the gap. Trader consensus aligns with polling trends showing Lula's established electoral base in the region. A major shift would require significant late-campaign momentum for challengers or unexpected changes in voter sentiment ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 96.7%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.4%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$12,377 Vol.
$12,377 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 96.7%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.4%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
$12,377 Vol.
$12,377 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$6,979 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$506 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$476 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$476 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$476 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$338 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$476 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$476 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$476 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$476 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$348 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$476 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$396 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Alagoas for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state's status as a Northeast stronghold where the incumbent enjoys consistent regional backing and approval ratings above 50 percent. A late-August Quaest survey placed him at 44 percent against Flávio Bolsonaro at 29 percent, with all other candidates at 2 percent or below and notable shares undecided or blank. Flávio Bolsonaro's recent campaign stops in the state, including events in Maceió and Arapiraca, have not narrowed the gap. Trader consensus aligns with polling trends showing Lula's established electoral base in the region. A major shift would require significant late-campaign momentum for challengers or unexpected changes in voter sentiment ahead of the October vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ET
Volume
$12,377End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Alagoas for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state's status as a Northeast stronghold where the incumbent enjoys consistent regional backing and approval ratings above 50 percent. A late-August Quaest survey placed him at 44 percent against Flávio Bolsonaro at 29 percent, with all other candidates at 2 percent or below and notable shares undecided or blank. Flávio Bolsonaro's recent campaign stops in the state, including events in Maceió and Arapiraca, have not narrowed the gap. Trader consensus aligns with polling trends showing Lula's established electoral base in the region. A major shift would require significant late-campaign momentum for challengers or unexpected changes in voter sentiment ahead of the October vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Alagoas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Alagoas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Alagoas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$12,377End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:24 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding position in Alagoas for first place in the 2026 presidential first round, reflecting the state's status as a Northeast stronghold where the incumbent enjoys consistent regional backing and approval ratings above 50 percent. A late-August Quaest survey placed him at 44 percent against Flávio Bolsonaro at 29 percent, with all other candidates at 2 percent or below and notable shares undecided or blank. Flávio Bolsonaro's recent campaign stops in the state, including events in Maceió and Arapiraca, have not narrowed the gap. Trader consensus aligns with polling trends showing Lula's established electoral base in the region. A major shift would require significant late-campaign momentum for challengers or unexpected changes in voter sentiment ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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