Lula maintains a commanding position in Bahia polling for the October 2026 first round, consistently registering around 50% support in late August surveys while the nearest challenger trails by more than 30 points. This reflects the state's entrenched support for the PT in the Northeast, reinforced by Lula's recent campaign events alongside the incumbent governor and high levels of vote certainty among respondents. The market's implied probability aligns with these patterns and historical voting margins in the region. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments such as major scandals affecting the frontrunner, significant changes in national economic conditions, or an unexpected consolidation of opposition votes, though current evidence shows limited movement in that direction ahead of election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 97.4%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Lula 97.4%
Flavio Bolsonaro 1.1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$4,730 Vol.
97%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$385 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$359 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$283 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$339 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$359 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$271 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$351 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$351 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$231 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$355 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$363 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$358 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Bahia polling for the October 2026 first round, consistently registering around 50% support in late August surveys while the nearest challenger trails by more than 30 points. This reflects the state's entrenched support for the PT in the Northeast, reinforced by Lula's recent campaign events alongside the incumbent governor and high levels of vote certainty among respondents. The market's implied probability aligns with these patterns and historical voting margins in the region. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments such as major scandals affecting the frontrunner, significant changes in national economic conditions, or an unexpected consolidation of opposition votes, though current evidence shows limited movement in that direction ahead of election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Volume
$8,736End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Bahia polling for the October 2026 first round, consistently registering around 50% support in late August surveys while the nearest challenger trails by more than 30 points. This reflects the state's entrenched support for the PT in the Northeast, reinforced by Lula's recent campaign events alongside the incumbent governor and high levels of vote certainty among respondents. The market's implied probability aligns with these patterns and historical voting margins in the region. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments such as major scandals affecting the frontrunner, significant changes in national economic conditions, or an unexpected consolidation of opposition votes, though current evidence shows limited movement in that direction ahead of election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Bahia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Bahia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Bahia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$8,736End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding position in Bahia polling for the October 2026 first round, consistently registering around 50% support in late August surveys while the nearest challenger trails by more than 30 points. This reflects the state's entrenched support for the PT in the Northeast, reinforced by Lula's recent campaign events alongside the incumbent governor and high levels of vote certainty among respondents. The market's implied probability aligns with these patterns and historical voting margins in the region. Potential shifts could arise from late-campaign developments such as major scandals affecting the frontrunner, significant changes in national economic conditions, or an unexpected consolidation of opposition votes, though current evidence shows limited movement in that direction ahead of election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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