Recent state-level polling in Mato Grosso, including Quaest surveys from late August 2026 showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 43% versus Lula at 26%, underpins trader consensus around his frontrunner status for first place in the presidential first round. The agricultural state's conservative electorate and alignment with Liberal Party positions on agribusiness, security, and evangelical priorities have sustained this edge, reinforced by Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement of his son as the PL nominee. Other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema register low single digits. Potential shifts could arise from undecided voters (14% in recent surveys), late campaign developments, or national events altering local preferences before the October vote, though current data indicate limited momentum for challengers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 95%
Lula 2.7%
Zema <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
95%
Lula
3%
Zema
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 95%
Lula 2.7%
Zema <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$2,761 Vol.
95%
Lula
$1,328 Vol.
3%
Zema
$481 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$358 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$373 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$274 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$248 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$332 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$278 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$327 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$291 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$365 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$284 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent state-level polling in Mato Grosso, including Quaest surveys from late August 2026 showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 43% versus Lula at 26%, underpins trader consensus around his frontrunner status for first place in the presidential first round. The agricultural state's conservative electorate and alignment with Liberal Party positions on agribusiness, security, and evangelical priorities have sustained this edge, reinforced by Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement of his son as the PL nominee. Other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema register low single digits. Potential shifts could arise from undecided voters (14% in recent surveys), late campaign developments, or national events altering local preferences before the October vote, though current data indicate limited momentum for challengers.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$7,700End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent state-level polling in Mato Grosso, including Quaest surveys from late August 2026 showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 43% versus Lula at 26%, underpins trader consensus around his frontrunner status for first place in the presidential first round. The agricultural state's conservative electorate and alignment with Liberal Party positions on agribusiness, security, and evangelical priorities have sustained this edge, reinforced by Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement of his son as the PL nominee. Other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema register low single digits. Potential shifts could arise from undecided voters (14% in recent surveys), late campaign developments, or national events altering local preferences before the October vote, though current data indicate limited momentum for challengers.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$7,700End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent state-level polling in Mato Grosso, including Quaest surveys from late August 2026 showing Flávio Bolsonaro at 43% versus Lula at 26%, underpins trader consensus around his frontrunner status for first place in the presidential first round. The agricultural state's conservative electorate and alignment with Liberal Party positions on agribusiness, security, and evangelical priorities have sustained this edge, reinforced by Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement of his son as the PL nominee. Other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema register low single digits. Potential shifts could arise from undecided voters (14% in recent surveys), late campaign developments, or national events altering local preferences before the October vote, though current data indicate limited momentum for challengers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions