Lula maintains a clear lead in Minas Gerais first-round polling for the 2026 presidential election, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and DATATEMPO placing him at 36-39% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-34% and Romeu Zema trailing in single digits. This positioning reflects Lula's incumbency advantage and organized campaign activity in the state, including a late-August visit focused on key voter groups, while opposition votes consolidate behind the PL candidate. Trader consensus prices Lula as the heavy favorite for first place in the state, consistent with his consistent edge in multiple August polls from Quaest and others, though the narrowing gap and high undecided share underscore the potential for shifts before the October vote. Zema and lower-polling names face structural barriers in a polarized contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 71%
Flavio Bolsonaro 22.1%
Zema <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$15,014 Vol.
$15,014 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
71%
Flavio Bolsonaro
22%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Lula 71%
Flavio Bolsonaro 22.1%
Zema <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$15,014 Vol.
$15,014 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$4,650 Vol.
71%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$3,035 Vol.
22%
Zema
$1,395 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$657 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$525 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$485 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$484 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$986 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$608 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$473 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$491 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$649 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$576 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a clear lead in Minas Gerais first-round polling for the 2026 presidential election, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and DATATEMPO placing him at 36-39% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-34% and Romeu Zema trailing in single digits. This positioning reflects Lula's incumbency advantage and organized campaign activity in the state, including a late-August visit focused on key voter groups, while opposition votes consolidate behind the PL candidate. Trader consensus prices Lula as the heavy favorite for first place in the state, consistent with his consistent edge in multiple August polls from Quaest and others, though the narrowing gap and high undecided share underscore the potential for shifts before the October vote. Zema and lower-polling names face structural barriers in a polarized contest.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$15,014End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a clear lead in Minas Gerais first-round polling for the 2026 presidential election, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and DATATEMPO placing him at 36-39% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-34% and Romeu Zema trailing in single digits. This positioning reflects Lula's incumbency advantage and organized campaign activity in the state, including a late-August visit focused on key voter groups, while opposition votes consolidate behind the PL candidate. Trader consensus prices Lula as the heavy favorite for first place in the state, consistent with his consistent edge in multiple August polls from Quaest and others, though the narrowing gap and high undecided share underscore the potential for shifts before the October vote. Zema and lower-polling names face structural barriers in a polarized contest.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$15,014End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a clear lead in Minas Gerais first-round polling for the 2026 presidential election, with recent surveys from Real Time Big Data and DATATEMPO placing him at 36-39% against Flávio Bolsonaro at 28-34% and Romeu Zema trailing in single digits. This positioning reflects Lula's incumbency advantage and organized campaign activity in the state, including a late-August visit focused on key voter groups, while opposition votes consolidate behind the PL candidate. Trader consensus prices Lula as the heavy favorite for first place in the state, consistent with his consistent edge in multiple August polls from Quaest and others, though the narrowing gap and high undecided share underscore the potential for shifts before the October vote. Zema and lower-polling names face structural barriers in a polarized contest.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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