Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará polling for the 2026 first round, with recent surveys from AtlasIntel and Quaest showing him at 38-49% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 31-38% and single-digit support for alternatives such as Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado. This positioning reflects the president's approval ratings near 50% in the state, driven by stronger backing among lower-income and female voters in a key northern electoral base. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Lula aligns with these trends and historical patterns of incumbent strength in the region. Potential shifts could arise from national campaign developments, changes in economic conditions, or unexpected surges by right-leaning contenders in the final weeks before the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 92%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.9%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$16,409 Vol.
$16,409 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
92%
Flavio Bolsonaro
5%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Samara
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 92%
Flavio Bolsonaro 4.9%
Rui Costa Pimenta <1%
Ronaldo Caiado <1%
$16,409 Vol.
$16,409 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$7,537 Vol.
92%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,205 Vol.
5%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$546 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$574 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$1,280 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$762 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$574 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$633 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$575 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$689 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$490 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$608 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$989 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará polling for the 2026 first round, with recent surveys from AtlasIntel and Quaest showing him at 38-49% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 31-38% and single-digit support for alternatives such as Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado. This positioning reflects the president's approval ratings near 50% in the state, driven by stronger backing among lower-income and female voters in a key northern electoral base. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Lula aligns with these trends and historical patterns of incumbent strength in the region. Potential shifts could arise from national campaign developments, changes in economic conditions, or unexpected surges by right-leaning contenders in the final weeks before the October vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$16,409End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará polling for the 2026 first round, with recent surveys from AtlasIntel and Quaest showing him at 38-49% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 31-38% and single-digit support for alternatives such as Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado. This positioning reflects the president's approval ratings near 50% in the state, driven by stronger backing among lower-income and female voters in a key northern electoral base. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Lula aligns with these trends and historical patterns of incumbent strength in the region. Potential shifts could arise from national campaign developments, changes in economic conditions, or unexpected surges by right-leaning contenders in the final weeks before the October vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$16,409End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Pará polling for the 2026 first round, with recent surveys from AtlasIntel and Quaest showing him at 38-49% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 31-38% and single-digit support for alternatives such as Renan Santos or Ronaldo Caiado. This positioning reflects the president's approval ratings near 50% in the state, driven by stronger backing among lower-income and female voters in a key northern electoral base. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Lula aligns with these trends and historical patterns of incumbent strength in the region. Potential shifts could arise from national campaign developments, changes in economic conditions, or unexpected surges by right-leaning contenders in the final weeks before the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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