Lula maintains a commanding position in Paraíba for first place in the October 2026 first round, backed by consistent polling leads of 50-55% against far lower shares for rivals such as Flávio Bolsonaro. This reflects entrenched voter preferences in the Northeast, where government approval stands near 61% and rejection rates favor the incumbent over challengers. Recent surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data confirm the pattern, with fragmented opposition candidates registering in single digits. Traders price this dominance accordingly, though shifts from undecided voters, turnout changes, or late campaign developments could still influence the final ordering.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 96.2%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
96%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Hertz Dias
1%
Renan Santos
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Zema
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Lula 96.2%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
Renan Santos <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$4,184 Vol.
96%
Edmilson Costa
$431 Vol.
1%
Hertz Dias
$483 Vol.
1%
Renan Santos
$431 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$431 Vol.
1%
Zema
$431 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$493 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$431 Vol.
1%
Samara
$431 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$431 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$431 Vol.
1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$452 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$431 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Paraíba for first place in the October 2026 first round, backed by consistent polling leads of 50-55% against far lower shares for rivals such as Flávio Bolsonaro. This reflects entrenched voter preferences in the Northeast, where government approval stands near 61% and rejection rates favor the incumbent over challengers. Recent surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data confirm the pattern, with fragmented opposition candidates registering in single digits. Traders price this dominance accordingly, though shifts from undecided voters, turnout changes, or late campaign developments could still influence the final ordering.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$9,492End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in Paraíba for first place in the October 2026 first round, backed by consistent polling leads of 50-55% against far lower shares for rivals such as Flávio Bolsonaro. This reflects entrenched voter preferences in the Northeast, where government approval stands near 61% and rejection rates favor the incumbent over challengers. Recent surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data confirm the pattern, with fragmented opposition candidates registering in single digits. Traders price this dominance accordingly, though shifts from undecided voters, turnout changes, or late campaign developments could still influence the final ordering.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Paraíba, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Paraíba.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Paraíba. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,492End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding position in Paraíba for first place in the October 2026 first round, backed by consistent polling leads of 50-55% against far lower shares for rivals such as Flávio Bolsonaro. This reflects entrenched voter preferences in the Northeast, where government approval stands near 61% and rejection rates favor the incumbent over challengers. Recent surveys from Quaest and Real Time Big Data confirm the pattern, with fragmented opposition candidates registering in single digits. Traders price this dominance accordingly, though shifts from undecided voters, turnout changes, or late campaign developments could still influence the final ordering.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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