Lula maintains a commanding lead in first-round voting intentions for president in Piauí, a traditional Workers’ Party stronghold in Brazil’s Northeast, where recent Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys from August 2026 show him at 60–64% against single-digit or low-teens shares for rivals including Flávio Bolsonaro. This positioning aligns with Lula’s record 74% share in the state during the 2022 first round and reflects sustained high approval of his federal administration alongside strong local backing for Governor Rafael Fonteles, whose own re-election prospects reinforce PT alignment. Traders have priced in these patterns, assigning overwhelming probability to Lula finishing first. Shifts could arise from late national campaign dynamics, unexpected turnout changes among key demographics, or a consolidated opposition surge, though current evidence indicates substantial structural advantages for the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 97.1%
Samara <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$11,114 Vol.
$11,114 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
97%
Samara
1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 97.1%
Samara <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$11,114 Vol.
$11,114 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$6,609 Vol.
97%
Samara
$272 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$408 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$342 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$436 Vol.
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$368 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$352 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$437 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$433 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$342 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$342 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$342 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$432 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in first-round voting intentions for president in Piauí, a traditional Workers’ Party stronghold in Brazil’s Northeast, where recent Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys from August 2026 show him at 60–64% against single-digit or low-teens shares for rivals including Flávio Bolsonaro. This positioning aligns with Lula’s record 74% share in the state during the 2022 first round and reflects sustained high approval of his federal administration alongside strong local backing for Governor Rafael Fonteles, whose own re-election prospects reinforce PT alignment. Traders have priced in these patterns, assigning overwhelming probability to Lula finishing first. Shifts could arise from late national campaign dynamics, unexpected turnout changes among key demographics, or a consolidated opposition surge, though current evidence indicates substantial structural advantages for the incumbent.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ET
Volume
$11,114End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in first-round voting intentions for president in Piauí, a traditional Workers’ Party stronghold in Brazil’s Northeast, where recent Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys from August 2026 show him at 60–64% against single-digit or low-teens shares for rivals including Flávio Bolsonaro. This positioning aligns with Lula’s record 74% share in the state during the 2022 first round and reflects sustained high approval of his federal administration alongside strong local backing for Governor Rafael Fonteles, whose own re-election prospects reinforce PT alignment. Traders have priced in these patterns, assigning overwhelming probability to Lula finishing first. Shifts could arise from late national campaign dynamics, unexpected turnout changes among key demographics, or a consolidated opposition surge, though current evidence indicates substantial structural advantages for the incumbent.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Piauí, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Piauí.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Piauí. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$11,114End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in first-round voting intentions for president in Piauí, a traditional Workers’ Party stronghold in Brazil’s Northeast, where recent Datafolha and AtlasIntel surveys from August 2026 show him at 60–64% against single-digit or low-teens shares for rivals including Flávio Bolsonaro. This positioning aligns with Lula’s record 74% share in the state during the 2022 first round and reflects sustained high approval of his federal administration alongside strong local backing for Governor Rafael Fonteles, whose own re-election prospects reinforce PT alignment. Traders have priced in these patterns, assigning overwhelming probability to Lula finishing first. Shifts could arise from late national campaign dynamics, unexpected turnout changes among key demographics, or a consolidated opposition surge, though current evidence indicates substantial structural advantages for the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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