Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in trader assessments for first place in Rio de Janeiro’s October 2026 presidential first round, reflecting his status as the state’s sitting senator and the Liberal Party nominee with deep local roots in Bolsonarismo. Recent state-specific polling from Datafolha and Quaest shows him leading or statistically tied with incumbent President Lula, consistent with his home-state advantage and stronger rejection ratings for Lula among fluminense voters. Minor candidates including Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register only low-single-digit support, while others remain at negligible levels. With the first-round vote less than six weeks away, traders appear to price in limited scope for late shifts absent major developments in the remaining campaign window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 84%
Lula 16%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
$13,732 Vol.
$13,732 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
84%
Lula
16%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 84%
Lula 16%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
$13,732 Vol.
$13,732 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$5,459 Vol.
84%
Lula
$2,804 Vol.
16%
Edmilson Costa
$453 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$373 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$625 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$747 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$639 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$567 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$373 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$375 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$453 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$431 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$433 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in trader assessments for first place in Rio de Janeiro’s October 2026 presidential first round, reflecting his status as the state’s sitting senator and the Liberal Party nominee with deep local roots in Bolsonarismo. Recent state-specific polling from Datafolha and Quaest shows him leading or statistically tied with incumbent President Lula, consistent with his home-state advantage and stronger rejection ratings for Lula among fluminense voters. Minor candidates including Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register only low-single-digit support, while others remain at negligible levels. With the first-round vote less than six weeks away, traders appear to price in limited scope for late shifts absent major developments in the remaining campaign window.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$13,732End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in trader assessments for first place in Rio de Janeiro’s October 2026 presidential first round, reflecting his status as the state’s sitting senator and the Liberal Party nominee with deep local roots in Bolsonarismo. Recent state-specific polling from Datafolha and Quaest shows him leading or statistically tied with incumbent President Lula, consistent with his home-state advantage and stronger rejection ratings for Lula among fluminense voters. Minor candidates including Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register only low-single-digit support, while others remain at negligible levels. With the first-round vote less than six weeks away, traders appear to price in limited scope for late shifts absent major developments in the remaining campaign window.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$13,732End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in trader assessments for first place in Rio de Janeiro’s October 2026 presidential first round, reflecting his status as the state’s sitting senator and the Liberal Party nominee with deep local roots in Bolsonarismo. Recent state-specific polling from Datafolha and Quaest shows him leading or statistically tied with incumbent President Lula, consistent with his home-state advantage and stronger rejection ratings for Lula among fluminense voters. Minor candidates including Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury register only low-single-digit support, while others remain at negligible levels. With the first-round vote less than six weeks away, traders appear to price in limited scope for late shifts absent major developments in the remaining campaign window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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