Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round, driven by consistent polling majorities and the state's conservative voting patterns. The latest Quaest survey from late August showed him at 45% against Lula's 25%, with all other candidates at 3% or below amid 12% undecided and 7% blank or null votes. Earlier Real Time Big Data polling from July recorded an even wider 58%-25% margin. Rondônia delivered Jair Bolsonaro a 70.6%-29.3% victory in 2022, reflecting durable regional support for PL-aligned candidates on issues such as security, agriculture, and federal policy. Low polling for alternatives like Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema leaves little room for vote splitting. Shifts among undecided voters or late national developments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 97.4%
Renan Santos <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Samara <1%
$13,240 Vol.
$13,240 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Renan Santos
1%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Samara
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Clariana Barao
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Lula
<1%
Zema
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.4%
Renan Santos <1%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Samara <1%
$13,240 Vol.
$13,240 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$7,782 Vol.
97%
Renan Santos
$381 Vol.
1%
Pablo Marçal
$491 Vol.
1%
Samara
$461 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$430 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$411 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$401 Vol.
1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$451 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$471 Vol.
<1%
Lula
$577 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$441 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$471 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$471 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round, driven by consistent polling majorities and the state's conservative voting patterns. The latest Quaest survey from late August showed him at 45% against Lula's 25%, with all other candidates at 3% or below amid 12% undecided and 7% blank or null votes. Earlier Real Time Big Data polling from July recorded an even wider 58%-25% margin. Rondônia delivered Jair Bolsonaro a 70.6%-29.3% victory in 2022, reflecting durable regional support for PL-aligned candidates on issues such as security, agriculture, and federal policy. Low polling for alternatives like Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema leaves little room for vote splitting. Shifts among undecided voters or late national developments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$13,240End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round, driven by consistent polling majorities and the state's conservative voting patterns. The latest Quaest survey from late August showed him at 45% against Lula's 25%, with all other candidates at 3% or below amid 12% undecided and 7% blank or null votes. Earlier Real Time Big Data polling from July recorded an even wider 58%-25% margin. Rondônia delivered Jair Bolsonaro a 70.6%-29.3% victory in 2022, reflecting durable regional support for PL-aligned candidates on issues such as security, agriculture, and federal policy. Low polling for alternatives like Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema leaves little room for vote splitting. Shifts among undecided voters or late national developments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$13,240End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Rondônia for first place in the October 2026 presidential first round, driven by consistent polling majorities and the state's conservative voting patterns. The latest Quaest survey from late August showed him at 45% against Lula's 25%, with all other candidates at 3% or below amid 12% undecided and 7% blank or null votes. Earlier Real Time Big Data polling from July recorded an even wider 58%-25% margin. Rondônia delivered Jair Bolsonaro a 70.6%-29.3% victory in 2022, reflecting durable regional support for PL-aligned candidates on issues such as security, agriculture, and federal policy. Low polling for alternatives like Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema leaves little room for vote splitting. Shifts among undecided voters or late national developments remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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