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World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election

icon for Brazil Presidential Election
World·Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 56%

Flávio Bolsonaro 37.6%

Augusto Cury 3.5%

Renan Santos 2.3%

Polymarket

$138,877,903 Vol.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 56%

Flávio Bolsonaro 37.6%

Augusto Cury 3.5%

Renan Santos 2.3%

Polymarket

$138,877,903 Vol.

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$9,419,239 Vol.

56%

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$9,200,209 Vol.

38%

icon for Augusto Cury

Augusto Cury

$2,527,569 Vol.

3%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$11,805,221 Vol.

2%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$6,889,126 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$6,410,332 Vol.

<1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$3,062,436 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$14,061,664 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$7,414,675 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$10,334,418 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$10,444,239 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$10,429,584 Vol.

<1%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$6,315,337 Vol.

<1%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$5,310,180 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$5,914,703 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$7,984,786 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$4,954,741 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$4,010,590 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$2,388,855 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a lead in recent polling aggregates for Brazil’s October 2026 presidential election as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, though first-round support has narrowed to the low-to-mid 40s amid a tightening contest with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party. The senator has gained ground through regional strength in the North and Center-West, consolidation of right-wing voters, and recent campaign milestones including the start of free electoral broadcasts and a first debate. Flávio’s public commitment to respect the results has reinforced his positioning as the primary opposition contender, while Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible. Lower-polling candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury fragment the remaining field, keeping runoff scenarios competitive within margins of error.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$138,877,903
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a lead in recent polling aggregates for Brazil’s October 2026 presidential election as the incumbent Workers’ Party candidate seeking a fourth term, though first-round support has narrowed to the low-to-mid 40s amid a tightening contest with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party. The senator has gained ground through regional strength in the North and Center-West, consolidation of right-wing voters, and recent campaign milestones including the start of free electoral broadcasts and a first debate. Flávio’s public commitment to respect the results has reinforced his positioning as the primary opposition contender, while Jair Bolsonaro remains ineligible. Lower-polling candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Augusto Cury fragment the remaining field, keeping runoff scenarios competitive within margins of error.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$138,877,903
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Related

icon for Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

87%
icon for Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

37%
icon for Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

8%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Brazil Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 56%, followed by "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Brazil Presidential Election" has generated $138.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Brazil Presidential Election," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Brazil Presidential Election" is "Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Flávio Bolsonaro" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Brazil Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.