Cid Gomes leads the Ceará Senate race at 60.5% implied probability for first place, reflecting his consistent position atop recent polling averages as the incumbent PSB senator. Surveys from Datafolha, Real Time Big Data, Genial/Quaest, and Ipsos-Ipec in July and August 2026 show him ahead or tied for the lead with 21–27% vote intentions for the two available seats, ahead of Capitão Wagner (União) at 16–24% and Luizianne Lins (Rede) further back. Wagner holds the next-highest market odds near 21.5%, consistent with his steady second-place showing, while lower probabilities for Alcides Fernandes, Catarina Matos, and others align with their single-digit or lower polling support. With voting still months away in October, these probabilities capture early positioning, name recognition, and the absence of major shifts from conventions or new candidate entries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCid Gomes 61%
Capitão Wagner 22%
Alcides Fernandes 7%
Luizianne 5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Cid Gomes
61%
Capitão Wagner
22%
Alcides Fernandes
7%
Luizianne
5%
Catarina Matos
5%
Lino Alves
4%
Reginaldo
4%
Guilherme Theophilo
4%
Cid Gomes 61%
Capitão Wagner 22%
Alcides Fernandes 7%
Luizianne 5%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Cid Gomes
$2,668 Vol.
61%
Capitão Wagner
$195 Vol.
22%
Alcides Fernandes
$122 Vol.
7%
Luizianne
$129 Vol.
5%
Catarina Matos
$109 Vol.
5%
Lino Alves
$86 Vol.
4%
Reginaldo
$88 Vol.
4%
Guilherme Theophilo
$86 Vol.
4%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Cid Gomes leads the Ceará Senate race at 60.5% implied probability for first place, reflecting his consistent position atop recent polling averages as the incumbent PSB senator. Surveys from Datafolha, Real Time Big Data, Genial/Quaest, and Ipsos-Ipec in July and August 2026 show him ahead or tied for the lead with 21–27% vote intentions for the two available seats, ahead of Capitão Wagner (União) at 16–24% and Luizianne Lins (Rede) further back. Wagner holds the next-highest market odds near 21.5%, consistent with his steady second-place showing, while lower probabilities for Alcides Fernandes, Catarina Matos, and others align with their single-digit or lower polling support. With voting still months away in October, these probabilities capture early positioning, name recognition, and the absence of major shifts from conventions or new candidate entries.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,484End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Cid Gomes leads the Ceará Senate race at 60.5% implied probability for first place, reflecting his consistent position atop recent polling averages as the incumbent PSB senator. Surveys from Datafolha, Real Time Big Data, Genial/Quaest, and Ipsos-Ipec in July and August 2026 show him ahead or tied for the lead with 21–27% vote intentions for the two available seats, ahead of Capitão Wagner (União) at 16–24% and Luizianne Lins (Rede) further back. Wagner holds the next-highest market odds near 21.5%, consistent with his steady second-place showing, while lower probabilities for Alcides Fernandes, Catarina Matos, and others align with their single-digit or lower polling support. With voting still months away in October, these probabilities capture early positioning, name recognition, and the absence of major shifts from conventions or new candidate entries.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$3,484End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cid Gomes leads the Ceará Senate race at 60.5% implied probability for first place, reflecting his consistent position atop recent polling averages as the incumbent PSB senator. Surveys from Datafolha, Real Time Big Data, Genial/Quaest, and Ipsos-Ipec in July and August 2026 show him ahead or tied for the lead with 21–27% vote intentions for the two available seats, ahead of Capitão Wagner (União) at 16–24% and Luizianne Lins (Rede) further back. Wagner holds the next-highest market odds near 21.5%, consistent with his steady second-place showing, while lower probabilities for Alcides Fernandes, Catarina Matos, and others align with their single-digit or lower polling support. With voting still months away in October, these probabilities capture early positioning, name recognition, and the absence of major shifts from conventions or new candidate entries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions