Recent polling in Ceará shows Cid Gomes (PSB) consistently leading intentions for one Senate seat ahead of the October 4 election, while Capitão Wagner (União), Luizianne Lins (Rede), and Alcides Fernandes (PL) cluster closely behind in consolidated first- and second-choice figures. High rates of undecided voters and blank/null responses keep the contest for second place fluid, with Lins recently gaining ground in some surveys. Trader pricing reflects this narrow spread among viable contenders for the second vacancy, driven by the two-vote system and limited differentiation on key state issues. Upcoming debates, candidate alliances tied to the gubernatorial race, and final polling releases before the campaign intensifies could shift second-place probabilities by clarifying voter preferences between the main challengers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLuizianne 32%
Capitão Wagner 22%
Cid Gomes 21%
Alcides Fernandes 19.6%
$20,177 Vol.
$20,177 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Luizianne
32%
Capitão Wagner
22%
Cid Gomes
21%
Alcides Fernandes
20%
Catarina Matos
2%
Lino Alves
1%
Guilherme Theophilo
<1%
Reginaldo
<1%
Luizianne 32%
Capitão Wagner 22%
Cid Gomes 21%
Alcides Fernandes 19.6%
$20,177 Vol.
$20,177 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Luizianne
$5,144 Vol.
32%
Capitão Wagner
$8,604 Vol.
22%
Cid Gomes
$2,504 Vol.
21%
Alcides Fernandes
$746 Vol.
20%
Catarina Matos
$1,204 Vol.
2%
Lino Alves
$685 Vol.
1%
Guilherme Theophilo
$560 Vol.
<1%
Reginaldo
$728 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Ceará shows Cid Gomes (PSB) consistently leading intentions for one Senate seat ahead of the October 4 election, while Capitão Wagner (União), Luizianne Lins (Rede), and Alcides Fernandes (PL) cluster closely behind in consolidated first- and second-choice figures. High rates of undecided voters and blank/null responses keep the contest for second place fluid, with Lins recently gaining ground in some surveys. Trader pricing reflects this narrow spread among viable contenders for the second vacancy, driven by the two-vote system and limited differentiation on key state issues. Upcoming debates, candidate alliances tied to the gubernatorial race, and final polling releases before the campaign intensifies could shift second-place probabilities by clarifying voter preferences between the main challengers.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Volume
$20,177End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling in Ceará shows Cid Gomes (PSB) consistently leading intentions for one Senate seat ahead of the October 4 election, while Capitão Wagner (União), Luizianne Lins (Rede), and Alcides Fernandes (PL) cluster closely behind in consolidated first- and second-choice figures. High rates of undecided voters and blank/null responses keep the contest for second place fluid, with Lins recently gaining ground in some surveys. Trader pricing reflects this narrow spread among viable contenders for the second vacancy, driven by the two-vote system and limited differentiation on key state issues. Upcoming debates, candidate alliances tied to the gubernatorial race, and final polling releases before the campaign intensifies could shift second-place probabilities by clarifying voter preferences between the main challengers.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$20,177End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Ceará shows Cid Gomes (PSB) consistently leading intentions for one Senate seat ahead of the October 4 election, while Capitão Wagner (União), Luizianne Lins (Rede), and Alcides Fernandes (PL) cluster closely behind in consolidated first- and second-choice figures. High rates of undecided voters and blank/null responses keep the contest for second place fluid, with Lins recently gaining ground in some surveys. Trader pricing reflects this narrow spread among viable contenders for the second vacancy, driven by the two-vote system and limited differentiation on key state issues. Upcoming debates, candidate alliances tied to the gubernatorial race, and final polling releases before the campaign intensifies could shift second-place probabilities by clarifying voter preferences between the main challengers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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