Eduardo Braide leads the Maranhão gubernatorial race at 71.5% implied probability, reflecting his consistent first-round polling advantage of 37-44% in recent surveys including the latest Quaest release, ahead of Orleans Brandão at 25-41%. Braide’s position stems from strong name recognition as São Luís mayor, PSD party infrastructure, and voter consolidation in the capital region ahead of the October 4 first round. Brandão, backed by the MDB and tied to the current governor’s family network, trails amid mixed poll results and lower spontaneous support. Minor candidates including Felipe Camarão remain under 6% with negligible market pricing, as the contest shows early signs of polarization between the two frontrunners. Official campaigning began in mid-August, with coalition negotiations and turnout patterns likely to influence any potential runoff on October 25.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEduardo Braide 72%
Orleans Brandão 30%
Felipe Camarão <1%
André Luís <1%
$70,086 Vol.
$70,086 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Braide
72%
Orleans Brandão
30%
Felipe Camarão
1%
André Luís
<1%
Lahesio Bonfim
<1%
Enilton Rodrigues
<1%
Eduardo Braide 72%
Orleans Brandão 30%
Felipe Camarão <1%
André Luís <1%
$70,086 Vol.
$70,086 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Braide
$34,556 Vol.
72%
Orleans Brandão
$15,360 Vol.
30%
Felipe Camarão
$5,196 Vol.
1%
André Luís
$5,747 Vol.
<1%
Lahesio Bonfim
$4,303 Vol.
<1%
Enilton Rodrigues
$4,924 Vol.
<1%
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Braide leads the Maranhão gubernatorial race at 71.5% implied probability, reflecting his consistent first-round polling advantage of 37-44% in recent surveys including the latest Quaest release, ahead of Orleans Brandão at 25-41%. Braide’s position stems from strong name recognition as São Luís mayor, PSD party infrastructure, and voter consolidation in the capital region ahead of the October 4 first round. Brandão, backed by the MDB and tied to the current governor’s family network, trails amid mixed poll results and lower spontaneous support. Minor candidates including Felipe Camarão remain under 6% with negligible market pricing, as the contest shows early signs of polarization between the two frontrunners. Official campaigning began in mid-August, with coalition negotiations and turnout patterns likely to influence any potential runoff on October 25.
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ET
Volume
$70,086End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Braide leads the Maranhão gubernatorial race at 71.5% implied probability, reflecting his consistent first-round polling advantage of 37-44% in recent surveys including the latest Quaest release, ahead of Orleans Brandão at 25-41%. Braide’s position stems from strong name recognition as São Luís mayor, PSD party infrastructure, and voter consolidation in the capital region ahead of the October 4 first round. Brandão, backed by the MDB and tied to the current governor’s family network, trails amid mixed poll results and lower spontaneous support. Minor candidates including Felipe Camarão remain under 6% with negligible market pricing, as the contest shows early signs of polarization between the two frontrunners. Official campaigning began in mid-August, with coalition negotiations and turnout patterns likely to influence any potential runoff on October 25.
The Maranhão gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$70,086End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:38 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Braide leads the Maranhão gubernatorial race at 71.5% implied probability, reflecting his consistent first-round polling advantage of 37-44% in recent surveys including the latest Quaest release, ahead of Orleans Brandão at 25-41%. Braide’s position stems from strong name recognition as São Luís mayor, PSD party infrastructure, and voter consolidation in the capital region ahead of the October 4 first round. Brandão, backed by the MDB and tied to the current governor’s family network, trails amid mixed poll results and lower spontaneous support. Minor candidates including Felipe Camarão remain under 6% with negligible market pricing, as the contest shows early signs of polarization between the two frontrunners. Official campaigning began in mid-August, with coalition negotiations and turnout patterns likely to influence any potential runoff on October 25.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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