Recent polls from Quaest and others show Reinaldo Azambuja leading Senate intentions in Mato Grosso do Sul at around 22%, with Capitão Contar close behind at 15-19% and Vander Loubet plus Soraya Thronicke trailing in single digits. Nelsinho Trad's July withdrawal as a candidate, shifting to suplente status, has consolidated support behind the two PL contenders, boosting Contar's positioning for the second seat in combined-vote scenarios. High undecided rates and voters' ability to select two names keep the contest fluid, though Contar's consistent polling edge and party momentum sustain trader preference for him over Loubet or others as the most likely runner-up ahead of the 2026 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCapitão Contar 57%
Vander Loubet 33%
Reinaldo Azambuja 6.4%
Soraya 5.6%
$10,466 Vol.
$10,466 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Contar
57%
Vander Loubet
33%
Reinaldo Azambuja
6%
Soraya
6%
Beto do Movimento
<1%
Roberto Oshiro
<1%
Valter da Comagran
<1%
Luiz Lemes
<1%
Daniel Junior
<1%
Valderi Garcia
<1%
Capitão Contar 57%
Vander Loubet 33%
Reinaldo Azambuja 6.4%
Soraya 5.6%
$10,466 Vol.
$10,466 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Capitão Contar
$2,600 Vol.
57%
Vander Loubet
$3,123 Vol.
33%
Reinaldo Azambuja
$702 Vol.
6%
Soraya
$850 Vol.
6%
Beto do Movimento
$553 Vol.
<1%
Roberto Oshiro
$562 Vol.
<1%
Valter da Comagran
$568 Vol.
<1%
Luiz Lemes
$567 Vol.
<1%
Daniel Junior
$497 Vol.
<1%
Valderi Garcia
$444 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from Quaest and others show Reinaldo Azambuja leading Senate intentions in Mato Grosso do Sul at around 22%, with Capitão Contar close behind at 15-19% and Vander Loubet plus Soraya Thronicke trailing in single digits. Nelsinho Trad's July withdrawal as a candidate, shifting to suplente status, has consolidated support behind the two PL contenders, boosting Contar's positioning for the second seat in combined-vote scenarios. High undecided rates and voters' ability to select two names keep the contest fluid, though Contar's consistent polling edge and party momentum sustain trader preference for him over Loubet or others as the most likely runner-up ahead of the 2026 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Volume
$10,466End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from Quaest and others show Reinaldo Azambuja leading Senate intentions in Mato Grosso do Sul at around 22%, with Capitão Contar close behind at 15-19% and Vander Loubet plus Soraya Thronicke trailing in single digits. Nelsinho Trad's July withdrawal as a candidate, shifting to suplente status, has consolidated support behind the two PL contenders, boosting Contar's positioning for the second seat in combined-vote scenarios. High undecided rates and voters' ability to select two names keep the contest fluid, though Contar's consistent polling edge and party momentum sustain trader preference for him over Loubet or others as the most likely runner-up ahead of the 2026 vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Mato Grosso do Sul is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$10,466End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from Quaest and others show Reinaldo Azambuja leading Senate intentions in Mato Grosso do Sul at around 22%, with Capitão Contar close behind at 15-19% and Vander Loubet plus Soraya Thronicke trailing in single digits. Nelsinho Trad's July withdrawal as a candidate, shifting to suplente status, has consolidated support behind the two PL contenders, boosting Contar's positioning for the second seat in combined-vote scenarios. High undecided rates and voters' ability to select two names keep the contest fluid, though Contar's consistent polling edge and party momentum sustain trader preference for him over Loubet or others as the most likely runner-up ahead of the 2026 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions