Wellington Fagundes (PL) leads the Mato Grosso gubernatorial race in the latest Quaest survey with 27% to incumbent Otaviano Pivetta’s (Republicanos) 23%, within the three-point margin of error, while Doutora Natasha (PSD) trails at 8%. Earlier Paraná Pesquisas data showed a statistical tie at 39-35%. Traders price Fagundes highest, reflecting his edge in recent fieldwork conducted August 21-24, party alliances including PL-MDB-Novo, and the state’s 2.6 million voters across 141 municipalities. Pivetta assumed the office in March 2026 following Mauro Mendes’ resignation and benefits from name recognition, though elevated undecided and blank responses near 30-37% and the October 4 first-round date sustain volatility. Minor candidates remain marginal in both polling and market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWellington Fagundes 61%
Otaviano Pivetta 38%
Mauricio Coelho <1%
Doutora Natasha <1%
$17,672 Vol.
$17,672 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Wellington Fagundes
61%
Otaviano Pivetta
27%
Mauricio Coelho
<1%
Doutora Natasha
<1%
Sargento Laudicério
<1%
Rafaell Milas
<1%
Wellington Fagundes 61%
Otaviano Pivetta 38%
Mauricio Coelho <1%
Doutora Natasha <1%
$17,672 Vol.
$17,672 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Wellington Fagundes
$11,096 Vol.
61%
Otaviano Pivetta
$3,120 Vol.
27%
Mauricio Coelho
$916 Vol.
<1%
Doutora Natasha
$981 Vol.
<1%
Sargento Laudicério
$689 Vol.
<1%
Rafaell Milas
$870 Vol.
<1%
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Wellington Fagundes (PL) leads the Mato Grosso gubernatorial race in the latest Quaest survey with 27% to incumbent Otaviano Pivetta’s (Republicanos) 23%, within the three-point margin of error, while Doutora Natasha (PSD) trails at 8%. Earlier Paraná Pesquisas data showed a statistical tie at 39-35%. Traders price Fagundes highest, reflecting his edge in recent fieldwork conducted August 21-24, party alliances including PL-MDB-Novo, and the state’s 2.6 million voters across 141 municipalities. Pivetta assumed the office in March 2026 following Mauro Mendes’ resignation and benefits from name recognition, though elevated undecided and blank responses near 30-37% and the October 4 first-round date sustain volatility. Minor candidates remain marginal in both polling and market pricing.
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ET
Volume
$17,672End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Wellington Fagundes (PL) leads the Mato Grosso gubernatorial race in the latest Quaest survey with 27% to incumbent Otaviano Pivetta’s (Republicanos) 23%, within the three-point margin of error, while Doutora Natasha (PSD) trails at 8%. Earlier Paraná Pesquisas data showed a statistical tie at 39-35%. Traders price Fagundes highest, reflecting his edge in recent fieldwork conducted August 21-24, party alliances including PL-MDB-Novo, and the state’s 2.6 million voters across 141 municipalities. Pivetta assumed the office in March 2026 following Mauro Mendes’ resignation and benefits from name recognition, though elevated undecided and blank responses near 30-37% and the October 4 first-round date sustain volatility. Minor candidates remain marginal in both polling and market pricing.
The Mato Grosso gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$17,672End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wellington Fagundes (PL) leads the Mato Grosso gubernatorial race in the latest Quaest survey with 27% to incumbent Otaviano Pivetta’s (Republicanos) 23%, within the three-point margin of error, while Doutora Natasha (PSD) trails at 8%. Earlier Paraná Pesquisas data showed a statistical tie at 39-35%. Traders price Fagundes highest, reflecting his edge in recent fieldwork conducted August 21-24, party alliances including PL-MDB-Novo, and the state’s 2.6 million voters across 141 municipalities. Pivetta assumed the office in March 2026 following Mauro Mendes’ resignation and benefits from name recognition, though elevated undecided and blank responses near 30-37% and the October 4 first-round date sustain volatility. Minor candidates remain marginal in both polling and market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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