Marília Arraes (PDT) holds a narrow numerical lead in recent polls for one of Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, but the race remains tightly contested within margins of error due to the multi-candidate format, voter ability to select two names, and persistently high undecided and blank/null shares exceeding 45 percent. August surveys from Quaest and Datafolha show Arraes at 15-16 percent, Humberto Costa (PT) at 13-14 percent, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 9-12 percent, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 6-11 percent, with minimal shifts from prior rounds and Arraes experiencing a modest dip. Alliances tied to João Campos (PSB) for the Arraes-Costa pairing and Governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) for opposing candidates, plus Lula administration backing for the front-runners, anchor current positioning. Further campaign events, candidate alignments, or turnout shifts among undecided voters could widen gaps ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMarília Arraes 54%
Humberto Costa 25.4%
Mendonça Filho 2.5%
Eduardo da Fonte 1.6%
$25,768 Vol.
$25,768 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
54%
Humberto Costa
25%
Mendonça Filho
3%
Eduardo da Fonte
2%
Gorett Bitu
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
<1%
Mariano Macedo
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
<1%
Marília Arraes 54%
Humberto Costa 25.4%
Mendonça Filho 2.5%
Eduardo da Fonte 1.6%
$25,768 Vol.
$25,768 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Marília Arraes
$11,824 Vol.
54%
Humberto Costa
$7,844 Vol.
25%
Mendonça Filho
$1,212 Vol.
3%
Eduardo da Fonte
$798 Vol.
2%
Gorett Bitu
$525 Vol.
<1%
Mailson da Silva Neto
$493 Vol.
<1%
Mariano Macedo
$470 Vol.
<1%
Paulo Rubem Santiago
$542 Vol.
<1%
Carlos Sant'Anna
$549 Vol.
<1%
Túlio Gadêlha
$486 Vol.
<1%
Samuel Timoteo
$500 Vol.
<1%
Pastor Gilvan Costa
$523 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) holds a narrow numerical lead in recent polls for one of Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, but the race remains tightly contested within margins of error due to the multi-candidate format, voter ability to select two names, and persistently high undecided and blank/null shares exceeding 45 percent. August surveys from Quaest and Datafolha show Arraes at 15-16 percent, Humberto Costa (PT) at 13-14 percent, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 9-12 percent, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 6-11 percent, with minimal shifts from prior rounds and Arraes experiencing a modest dip. Alliances tied to João Campos (PSB) for the Arraes-Costa pairing and Governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) for opposing candidates, plus Lula administration backing for the front-runners, anchor current positioning. Further campaign events, candidate alignments, or turnout shifts among undecided voters could widen gaps ahead of the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
Volume
$25,768End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Marília Arraes (PDT) holds a narrow numerical lead in recent polls for one of Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, but the race remains tightly contested within margins of error due to the multi-candidate format, voter ability to select two names, and persistently high undecided and blank/null shares exceeding 45 percent. August surveys from Quaest and Datafolha show Arraes at 15-16 percent, Humberto Costa (PT) at 13-14 percent, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 9-12 percent, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 6-11 percent, with minimal shifts from prior rounds and Arraes experiencing a modest dip. Alliances tied to João Campos (PSB) for the Arraes-Costa pairing and Governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) for opposing candidates, plus Lula administration backing for the front-runners, anchor current positioning. Further campaign events, candidate alignments, or turnout shifts among undecided voters could widen gaps ahead of the October vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pernambuco is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$25,768End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Marília Arraes (PDT) holds a narrow numerical lead in recent polls for one of Pernambuco’s two Senate seats, but the race remains tightly contested within margins of error due to the multi-candidate format, voter ability to select two names, and persistently high undecided and blank/null shares exceeding 45 percent. August surveys from Quaest and Datafolha show Arraes at 15-16 percent, Humberto Costa (PT) at 13-14 percent, Mendonça Filho (PL) at 9-12 percent, and Eduardo da Fonte (PP) at 6-11 percent, with minimal shifts from prior rounds and Arraes experiencing a modest dip. Alliances tied to João Campos (PSB) for the Arraes-Costa pairing and Governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) for opposing candidates, plus Lula administration backing for the front-runners, anchor current positioning. Further campaign events, candidate alignments, or turnout shifts among undecided voters could widen gaps ahead of the October vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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