Skip to main content
icon for Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner
Politics·Main Election

Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner

icon for Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner
Politics·Main Election

Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner

Juliana Brizola 52%

Luciano Zucco 44%

Gabriel Souza 3.1%

Marcelo Maranata 1.6%

Polymarket

$94,313 Vol.

Juliana Brizola 52%

Luciano Zucco 44%

Gabriel Souza 3.1%

Marcelo Maranata 1.6%

Polymarket

$94,313 Vol.

Juliana Brizola

$32,818 Vol.

52%

Luciano Zucco

$42,608 Vol.

44%

Gabriel Souza

$9,749 Vol.

3%

Marcelo Maranata

$6,664 Vol.

2%

Luis Carlos Heinze

$2,474 Vol.

<1%

The Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from institutes such as Quaest and Real Time Big Data show Juliana Brizola (PDT) and Luciano Zucco (PL) in a technical tie or narrow lead in first-round voting intentions for the Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial race, with Brizola often favored in runoff simulations against the PL candidate. Brizola draws support from the PT-aligned coalition including President Lula, while Zucco positions as the bolsonarista alternative backed by PL networks. The third-place candidate, current vice-governor Gabriel Souza (MDB) running as successor to Eduardo Leite, trails significantly. The August launch of free electoral TV time highlighted contrasting messages—Brizola referencing 2024 floods and Zucco stressing state pride and change—while high shares of undecided and blank/null voters sustain volatility ahead of the October 4 first round. These dynamics, reflected in polling averages, underpin the market's closely matched pricing between the top two contenders.

The Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$94,313
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 5:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls from institutes such as Quaest and Real Time Big Data show Juliana Brizola (PDT) and Luciano Zucco (PL) in a technical tie or narrow lead in first-round voting intentions for the Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial race, with Brizola often favored in runoff simulations against the PL candidate. Brizola draws support from the PT-aligned coalition including President Lula, while Zucco positions as the bolsonarista alternative backed by PL networks. The third-place candidate, current vice-governor Gabriel Souza (MDB) running as successor to Eduardo Leite, trails significantly. The August launch of free electoral TV time highlighted contrasting messages—Brizola referencing 2024 floods and Zucco stressing state pride and change—while high shares of undecided and blank/null voters sustain volatility ahead of the October 4 first round. These dynamics, reflected in polling averages, underpin the market's closely matched pricing between the top two contenders.

The Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$94,313
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
May 28, 2026, 5:40 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Rio Grande do Sul gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Related

icon for Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

56%
icon for Will Eduardo Riedel win the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election?

Will Eduardo Riedel win the 2026 Mato Grosso do Sul gubernatorial election?

92%
icon for Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?

Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?

95%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Juliana Brizola" at 52%, followed by "Luciano Zucco" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner" has generated $94.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner" is "Juliana Brizola" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Luciano Zucco" at 44%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Rio Grande do Sul Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.