Recent polling from Quaest and Real Time Big Data shows Professora Dorinha (União Brasil) leading or in technical tie with Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) in first-round intentions at 33-37% to 28-30%, with both far ahead of Laurez Moreira and minor candidates. In simulated runoffs, the pair remains closely matched. Dorinha's candidacy was formalized in early August with a broad coalition, building on her Senate incumbency and prior federal service, while Vicentinho secured PSDB-MDB backing around the same time. Traders assign her a leading edge consistent with these trends and structural advantages ahead of the October vote, though the contest remains competitive with limited differentiation between the frontrunners.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedProfessora Dorinha 61%
Vicentinho Júnior 41%
Ataides de Oliveira <1%
Du Pereira <1%
$15,592 Vol.
$15,592 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Professora Dorinha
61%
Vicentinho Júnior
41%
Ataides de Oliveira
<1%
Du Pereira
<1%
Laurez Moreira
<1%
Prof. Witer Naves
<1%
Subtenente Luiz Carlos
<1%
Professora Dorinha 61%
Vicentinho Júnior 41%
Ataides de Oliveira <1%
Du Pereira <1%
$15,592 Vol.
$15,592 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Professora Dorinha
$3,263 Vol.
61%
Vicentinho Júnior
$5,256 Vol.
41%
Ataides de Oliveira
$1,683 Vol.
<1%
Du Pereira
$2,273 Vol.
<1%
Laurez Moreira
$645 Vol.
<1%
Prof. Witer Naves
$1,515 Vol.
<1%
Subtenente Luiz Carlos
$958 Vol.
<1%
The Tocantins gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Quaest and Real Time Big Data shows Professora Dorinha (União Brasil) leading or in technical tie with Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) in first-round intentions at 33-37% to 28-30%, with both far ahead of Laurez Moreira and minor candidates. In simulated runoffs, the pair remains closely matched. Dorinha's candidacy was formalized in early August with a broad coalition, building on her Senate incumbency and prior federal service, while Vicentinho secured PSDB-MDB backing around the same time. Traders assign her a leading edge consistent with these trends and structural advantages ahead of the October vote, though the contest remains competitive with limited differentiation between the frontrunners.
The Tocantins gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:39 AM ET
Volume
$15,592End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Tocantins gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polling from Quaest and Real Time Big Data shows Professora Dorinha (União Brasil) leading or in technical tie with Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) in first-round intentions at 33-37% to 28-30%, with both far ahead of Laurez Moreira and minor candidates. In simulated runoffs, the pair remains closely matched. Dorinha's candidacy was formalized in early August with a broad coalition, building on her Senate incumbency and prior federal service, while Vicentinho secured PSDB-MDB backing around the same time. Traders assign her a leading edge consistent with these trends and structural advantages ahead of the October vote, though the contest remains competitive with limited differentiation between the frontrunners.
The Tocantins gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$15,592End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Quaest and Real Time Big Data shows Professora Dorinha (União Brasil) leading or in technical tie with Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) in first-round intentions at 33-37% to 28-30%, with both far ahead of Laurez Moreira and minor candidates. In simulated runoffs, the pair remains closely matched. Dorinha's candidacy was formalized in early August with a broad coalition, building on her Senate incumbency and prior federal service, while Vicentinho secured PSDB-MDB backing around the same time. Traders assign her a leading edge consistent with these trends and structural advantages ahead of the October vote, though the contest remains competitive with limited differentiation between the frontrunners.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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