Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator seeking re-election, leads recent polling for one of Tocantins’s two Senate seats ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. A Real Time Big Data survey released August 26 showed him at 26% in the stimulated scenario, ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) at 18% and Gaguim (União) at 10%, while a Quaest poll from August 25 placed Gomes at 14% and Gaguim at 13%. These results align with earlier June and July surveys in which Gomes consistently topped the field. Traders reflect this positioning through his elevated probability for first place, while lower odds for trailing names track their weaker or more fragmented support in the latest data releases. The two-seat system and high undecided share in spontaneous polls keep the race dynamic but reinforce Gomes’s current edge based on name recognition and polling trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEduardo Gomes 65%
Gaguim 20.1%
Alexandre Guimarães 11.3%
Paulo Mourão <1%
$22,840 Vol.
$22,840 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Gomes
65%
Gaguim
20%
Alexandre Guimarães
11%
Paulo Mourão
1%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
<1%
Eli Borges
<1%
Fábio Ribeiro
<1%
Osvany Luz
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
<1%
Ronaldo Dimas
<1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
<1%
Nilton Santos
<1%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
<1%
Eduardo Gomes 65%
Gaguim 20.1%
Alexandre Guimarães 11.3%
Paulo Mourão <1%
$22,840 Vol.
$22,840 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Eduardo Gomes
$13,851 Vol.
65%
Gaguim
$1,140 Vol.
20%
Alexandre Guimarães
$2,028 Vol.
11%
Paulo Mourão
$591 Vol.
1%
Apóstolo Flavio Braga
$600 Vol.
<1%
Eli Borges
$541 Vol.
<1%
Fábio Ribeiro
$611 Vol.
<1%
Osvany Luz
$533 Vol.
<1%
Professor Osvaldo
$611 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Dimas
$628 Vol.
<1%
Helio Rodrigues Bolsonaro
$554 Vol.
<1%
Nilton Santos
$646 Vol.
<1%
Vanderlei Luxemburgo
$503 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator seeking re-election, leads recent polling for one of Tocantins’s two Senate seats ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. A Real Time Big Data survey released August 26 showed him at 26% in the stimulated scenario, ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) at 18% and Gaguim (União) at 10%, while a Quaest poll from August 25 placed Gomes at 14% and Gaguim at 13%. These results align with earlier June and July surveys in which Gomes consistently topped the field. Traders reflect this positioning through his elevated probability for first place, while lower odds for trailing names track their weaker or more fragmented support in the latest data releases. The two-seat system and high undecided share in spontaneous polls keep the race dynamic but reinforce Gomes’s current edge based on name recognition and polling trends.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volume
$22,840End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator seeking re-election, leads recent polling for one of Tocantins’s two Senate seats ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. A Real Time Big Data survey released August 26 showed him at 26% in the stimulated scenario, ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) at 18% and Gaguim (União) at 10%, while a Quaest poll from August 25 placed Gomes at 14% and Gaguim at 13%. These results align with earlier June and July surveys in which Gomes consistently topped the field. Traders reflect this positioning through his elevated probability for first place, while lower odds for trailing names track their weaker or more fragmented support in the latest data releases. The two-seat system and high undecided share in spontaneous polls keep the race dynamic but reinforce Gomes’s current edge based on name recognition and polling trends.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Tocantins is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$22,840End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Eduardo Gomes (PL), the incumbent senator seeking re-election, leads recent polling for one of Tocantins’s two Senate seats ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. A Real Time Big Data survey released August 26 showed him at 26% in the stimulated scenario, ahead of Alexandre Guimarães (MDB) at 18% and Gaguim (União) at 10%, while a Quaest poll from August 25 placed Gomes at 14% and Gaguim at 13%. These results align with earlier June and July surveys in which Gomes consistently topped the field. Traders reflect this positioning through his elevated probability for first place, while lower odds for trailing names track their weaker or more fragmented support in the latest data releases. The two-seat system and high undecided share in spontaneous polls keep the race dynamic but reinforce Gomes’s current edge based on name recognition and polling trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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