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Politics·Brazil

Alagoas Governor Election Winner

icon for Alagoas Governor Election Winner
Politics·Brazil

Alagoas Governor Election Winner

JHC 61%

Renan Filho 40%

Márcio Jambo <1%

Lenilda Luna <1%

Polymarket
NEW

JHC 61%

Renan Filho 40%

Márcio Jambo <1%

Lenilda Luna <1%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for JHC

JHC

$2,041 Vol.

61%

icon for Renan Filho

Renan Filho

$2,576 Vol.

40%

icon for Márcio Jambo

Márcio Jambo

$449 Vol.

<1%

icon for Lenilda Luna

Lenilda Luna

$469 Vol.

<1%

The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).JHC (João Henrique Caldas, PSDB) holds the lead in trader consensus at 60.5% implied probability for the October 2026 Alagoas gubernatorial race, ahead of Renan Filho (MDB) at 40.5%, with all other named candidates at or below 0.2%. The contest is a polarized matchup between the popular former Maceió mayor JHC and the former governor and senator Renan Filho, successor dynamics following Paulo Dantas. Multiple registered polls from mid-2026 showed JHC ahead by double digits in some waves (e.g., TDL June), while the latest Quaest survey from late August found a technical tie at 42-40%. JHC’s stronger name recognition, recent mayoral performance, and last-minute confirmation of his gubernatorial bid—rather than a Senate run—appear to underpin the market’s positioning, alongside negligible support for minor candidates such as Lenilda Luna and Márcio Jambo. The race remains fluid with roughly six weeks until the first round.

The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$5,535
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:27 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).JHC (João Henrique Caldas, PSDB) holds the lead in trader consensus at 60.5% implied probability for the October 2026 Alagoas gubernatorial race, ahead of Renan Filho (MDB) at 40.5%, with all other named candidates at or below 0.2%. The contest is a polarized matchup between the popular former Maceió mayor JHC and the former governor and senator Renan Filho, successor dynamics following Paulo Dantas. Multiple registered polls from mid-2026 showed JHC ahead by double digits in some waves (e.g., TDL June), while the latest Quaest survey from late August found a technical tie at 42-40%. JHC’s stronger name recognition, recent mayoral performance, and last-minute confirmation of his gubernatorial bid—rather than a Senate run—appear to underpin the market’s positioning, alongside negligible support for minor candidates such as Lenilda Luna and Márcio Jambo. The race remains fluid with roughly six weeks until the first round.

The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$5,535
End Date
Oct 4, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:27 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Alagoas gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Alagoas Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "JHC" at 61%, followed by "Renan Filho" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Alagoas Governor Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 17, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Alagoas Governor Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Alagoas Governor Election Winner" is "JHC" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Renan Filho" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Alagoas Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.